A new alliance of the French left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale (Nupes) – will compete in the French legislative elections on 12 and 19 June. Philippe Marlière assesses what impact the formation of the alliance might have on the elections

Marlière, Philippe

English

LSE Research Online

Can	the	‘Nupes’	revive	the	French	left’s	fortunes?A	new	alliance	of	the	French	left	led	by	Jean-Luc	Mélenchon	–	the	Nouvelle	union	populaire	écologique	et	sociale(Nupes)	–	will	compete	in	the	French	legislative	elections	on	12	and	19	June.	Philippe	Marlière	assesses	whatimpact	the	formation	of	the	alliance	might	have	on	the	elections.The	launch	of	the	Nupes	has	dramatically	changed	the	political	mood	in	France	in	the	run	up	to	the	legislativeelections	on	12	and	19	June.	Until	then,	the	prospects	for	the	left	looked	quite	bleak.	Despite	Jean-Luc	Mélenchon’sstrong	showing	in	the	polls,	the	left	had	again	failed	to	qualify	for	the	second	round	of	the	presidential	election.Disunited,	the	various	parties	of	the	left	seemed	destined	for	another	crushing	defeat	in	the	legislative	elections.Nupes	now	gives	them	hope.Nupes	stands	for	Nouvelle	union	populaire	écologique	et	sociale.	The	coalition	gathers	together	the	main	left-wingparties:	the	Parti	socialiste	(PS),	Parti	communiste	français	(PCF),	Europe	écologie	les	verts	(EELV),	as	well	assmaller	parties	such	as	Génération.s,	Génération	écologie,	and	the	Nouveaux	démocrates.	Nouveau	partianticapitaliste	(NPA),	the	only	anti-capitalist	party	that	was	invited	to	join	the	coalition,	opted	out	as	it	refused	to	bepart	of	a	coalition	alongside	the	PS.In	the	first	instance,	each	party	signed	a	bilateral	agreement	with	La	France	insoumise,	Mélenchon’s	movement.	On19	May,	all	one-to-one	agreements	merged	in	a	comprehensive	platform	containing	650	policy	proposals.	This	isnot	the	first	time	that	the	left	in	France	has	formed	such	a	broad	electoral	coalition.	There	are	four	historicprecedents:	1924’s	Cartel	des	gauches	(Socialists	and	Radicals);	1936’s	Popular	Front	(Socialists,	Radicals	andCommunists,	although	the	latter	did	not	join	the	government);	1972’s	Common	Programme	(PS,	PCF	andMouvement	des	Radicaux	de	Gauche)	and	1997’s	“Plural	Left”	(PS,	PCF,	Citizens’	Movement	and	the	Greens).The	new	alliance’s	programme	is	of	a	radical	reformist	nature.	It	is	in	line	with	the	radicalism	of	the	CommonProgramme	of	the	1970s,	although	commentators	have	noted	that	it	is	less	radical	than	the	1972	agreement	as	itdoes	not	call	for	a	transitional	break	with	capitalism.	As	Thomas	Piketty	put	it,	the	united	left	has	put	“social	andfiscal	justice”	back	on	the	political	agenda	(its	flagship	policies	roll	back	the	retirement	age	to	60	and	raise	theminimum	wage).	The	Nupes	roadmap	also	sets	out	ecological	planning	and	a	“golden	climate	rule”	designed	toprotect	biodiversity,	fight	environmental	pollution	and	reduce	greenhouse	gases.Interestingly,	members	of	the	new	alliance	are	quite	open	about	policy	disagreements	within	the	coalition.	There	areindeed	33	“policy	differences”:	e.g.	on	Europe,	where	the	Nupes	is	committed	to	“redirecting	the	course	ofEuropean	integration	towards	more	social	justice,	better	environmental	policies,	and	to	defending	public	services”.But	each	party’s	stand	on	Europe	is	stated.	La	France	insoumise	is	presented	as	the	heir	of	those	who	fought	andrejected	the	2005	Constitutional	Treaty	and	as	a	movement	that	might	“disobey”	EU	law,	should	the	EU	prevent	theNupes	from	implementing	its	programme.	Meanwhile,	the	EELV	is	said	to	“support	a	federal	Europe”	and	the	PS	is“strongly	committed	to	pursuing	European	integration”.Programmatic	diplomacy	also	applies	to	the	sensitive	topic	of	the	war	in	Ukraine.	In	the	run-up	to	the	presidentialelection,	the	PS	and	EELV	vehemently	opposed	the	stances	on	Ukraine	taken	by	La	France	insoumise	and	thePCF.	They	were	particularly	alarmed	at	Mélenchon’s	pro-Russian	views	in	the	pre-war	period.	This	said,	Ukraineshould	not	be	a	cassus	belli	for	the	Nupes.The	programme	states	that	the	coalition	is	committed	to	“defending	Ukraine’s	territorial	integrity”	and	points	to“Putin’s	crimes”.	This,	on	the	whole,	seems	fine,	but	it	is	also	terribly	vague:	how	would	a	Nupes-led	governmentactually	defend	Ukraine?	The	programme	remains	evasive	on	this	important	issue.	Furthermore,	there	is	nomention	of	the	strong	disagreements	between	the	coalition	partners	with	regards	to	NATO:	La	France	insoumisethinks	that	NATO	constitutes	a	major	threat	in	the	region	and	wants	France	out	of	it,	whereas	the	PS	is	dedicated	toNATO	membership.What	led	to	the	formation	of	the	Nupes?LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Can the ‘Nupes’ revive the French left’s fortunes? Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/05/30/can-the-nupes-revive-the-french-lefts-fortunes/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/A	rather	unsuccessful	“popular	primary	election”	was	organised	in	January	to	select	a	common	left-wing	candidatefor	the	2022	presidential	election.	Christiane	Taubira,	a	former	Justice	Minister	during	François	Hollande’spresidency,	won	it	but	she	was	soon	abandoned	by	her	supporters.	Instead	of	uniting	the	left,	Taubira’s	ill-preparedand	amateurish	campaign	was	seen	as	bringing	about	further	division	to	the	left.In	the	end,	opinion	polls	were	the	actual	primary	election	on	the	left.	After	a	slow	start,	Mélenchon	finished	strongly,much	like	he	did	in	the	2017	presidential	election.	He	was	narrowly	defeated	by	Marine	Le	Pen	for	the	second	spotin	the	runoff.	Mélenchon	further	personalised	an	election	that	is,	by	its	nature,	very	personalised.	On	two	occasionshe	has	now	run	as	a	self-nominated	candidate,	while	refusing	to	take	party	in	a	primary	election	for	the	left.In	both	2017	and	2022,	Mélenchon	benefitted	from	tactical	voting.	In	the	latest	election,	voters	who	envisagedvoting	for	other	left-wing	candidates	switched	allegiance	at	the	last	minute	and	supported	Mélenchon.	Some	evendisliked	Mélenchon	or	were	not	in	agreement	with	some	of	his	policies,	yet	they	voted	tactically	in	the	hope	theycould	avoid	a	rerun	of	the	2017	contest	between	Macron	and	Le	Pen.	Left-wing	voters	were	desperate	to	avoid	theleft’s	exclusion	from	the	second	round	yet	again.When	Mélenchon	proposed	an	alliance	to	his	left-wing	rivals,	he	did	so	from	a	position	of	strength,	afteremphatically	defeating	all	other	left-wing	candidates	in	the	first	round.	This	meant	that	he	could	impose	the	tempoand	nature	of	the	coalition	talks.	What	is	more,	he	managed	to	self-appoint	himself	as	“Prime	Minister	in-waiting”,should	the	Nupes	win	the	legislative	elections.	He	even	asked	voters	to	“elect”	him	Prime	Minister,	a	constitutionalaberration	since	only	the	President	can	appoint	the	Prime	Minister.La	France	insoumise	is	very	much	the	dominant	force	within	the	Nupes:	with	325	candidates	across	France,Mélenchon’s	movement	accounts	for	just	over	56%	of	the	Nupes’	candidates.	On	1	May,	at	the	Nupes’	publiclaunch	in	Aubervilliers,	each	left-wing	leader	was	given	some	brief	speaking-time.	Mélenchon	spoke	last	and	hisspeech	lasted	almost	two	hours.Interestingly,	the	Nupes	represents	a	major	tactical	change	for	Mélenchon,	who	between	2016	and	2020deliberately	scorned	the	left	and	embraced	a	“populist”	strategy.	He	unsuccessfully	tried	to	federate	the	“people”beyond	the	traditional	left-right	divide.	This	did	not	work	out	to	plan:	during	Macron’s	first	term,	La	France	insoumisesuffered	from	poor	electoral	results	and	the	movement	only	managed	to	get	a	few	party	officials	elected	acrossFrance.Mélenchon	badly	needed	the	Nupes	to	avoid	being	soundly	defeated	again	by	Macron’s	party	in	the	legislativeelections	(La	France	insoumise	currently	has	17	MPs	against	the	267	MPs	belonging	to	Macron’s	party).	Yet	theother	left-wing	parties	also	badly	needed	the	alliance	to	salvage	their	parliamentary	group.	The	PS,	PCF	and	EELVfared	so	abysmally	in	the	presidential	election	that	there	was	a	real	risk	that	without	such	an	agreement,	they	couldlose	virtually	all	their	MPs.This	being	said,	what	was	initially	a	tactical	retreat	on	the	part	of	a	weakened	left	has	turned	out	to	be	a	bit	of	amasterstroke.	Voters	are	generally	supportive	of	the	agreement	and	there	is	now	real	hope	the	left	mightsignificantly	increase	its	representation	in	the	National	Assembly,	if	not	win	the	election	outright.	Ironically,	thealliance	might	boost	the	ailing	fortunes	of	the	PS,	which	has	been	fighting	for	its	survival	over	the	past	five	years.The	Nupes	agreement	gives	the	PS	a	chance	to	shift	to	the	left	and	reconnect	with	its	lost	electorate.	If	it	keeps	leftand	manages	to	promote	competent	leaders,	it	might	even	recover	lost	ground	and	become	a	significant	forceagain.What	next?Three	electoral	scenarios	can	be	envisaged	at	this	stage.	The	first	is	that	the	Nupes	will	win	an	overall	majority.This	is	possible	but	remains	unlikely.	Mélenchon	would	become	Prime	Minister	in	this	scenario,	and	the	Nupeswould	start	to	function	as	an	umbrella	parliamentary	group	(each	party	will	keep	its	own	parliamentary	group	withinthe	Nupes).The	second	scenario	would	be	if	the	Nupes	does	not	win	an	overall	majority,	but	the	left	significantly	increases	itstotal	number	of	MPs	(which	combined	currently	stands	at	60).	This	would	provide	an	incentive	for	the	coalition	tokeep	working	together.	Finally,	it	is	possible	the	Nupes	will	be	largely	defeated,	and	only	La	France	insoumisemight	increase	its	total	number	of	MPs.	This	would	test	the	resilience	and	strength	of	the	alliance	to	the	full.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Can the ‘Nupes’ revive the French left’s fortunes? Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/05/30/can-the-nupes-revive-the-french-lefts-fortunes/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/At	present,	opinion	polls	suggest	that	the	second	of	these	scenarios	–	the	Nupes	significantly	increasing	its	share	ofMPs	but	failing	to	win	a	majority	–	is	the	most	likely	of	all.	If	the	Nupes	fails	to	win	a	majority,	it	would	mark	the	endof	front-line	political	activities	for	Mélenchon,	as	he	will	not	be	running	for	re-election	as	an	MP.It	remains	to	be	seen	how	the	election	will	transpire,	but	for	now,	the	Nupes	has	given	hope	to	a	weakened	left	bycreating	a	new	political	dynamic	capable	of	challenging	Macron’s	“faux	centrism”.	Political	differences	betweencoalition	parties	can	be	ironed	out	at	least	for	the	foreseeable	future.	They	did	not	prevent	successful	left-wingcoalitions	in	1936,	1981	or	1997.Nevertheless,	one	should	not	lose	sight	of	the	fact	that	the	total	left-wing	vote	in	France	sat	at	around	30%	at	theend	of	Macron’s	first	term.	In	comparison,	right-wing	and	far	right	votes	total	more	than	60%.	This	shows	there	is	nooutright	left-wing	majority	in	France	at	present	and	provides	reason	to	temper	expectations	about	what	the	Nupescan	achieve.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	Rue89	Strasbourg	(CC	BY-NC-SA	2.0)LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Can the ‘Nupes’ revive the French left’s fortunes? Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2022-05-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/05/30/can-the-nupes-revive-the-french-lefts-fortunes/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Can the ‘Nupes’ revive the French left’s fortunes?

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Can the ‘Nupes’ revive the French left’s fortunes?

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