In recent years Florida has voted reliably for Republican candidates at both the national and statewide level, with the 2022 midterm results looking likely to continue that trend until recently. Kevin Fahey writes that new political events including the conflict between the state’s Governor Ron DeSantis and the Disney corporation, the US Supreme Court’s overturning of the right to an abortion, and revelations from the January 6th Commission mean that GOP electoral victories in Florida this November may no longer be a certainty. He writes that the Democratic anger these developments may engender makes predicting the midterm results in the Sunshine State near impossible

Fahey, Kevin

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LSE Research Online

The	2022	Midterms:	Why	the	triumph	of	Republicantrue	believers	means	the	outcome	in	Florida	may	betoo	hard	to	callIn	recent	years	Florida	has	voted	reliably	for	Republican	candidates	at	both	the	national	and	statewidelevel,	with	the	2022	midterm	results	looking	likely	to	continue	that	trend	until	recently.	Kevin	Faheywrites	that	new	political	events	including	the	conflict	between	the	state’s	Governor	Ron	DeSantis	andthe	Disney	corporation,	the	US	Supreme	Court’s	overturning	of	the	right	to	an	abortion,	andrevelations	from	the	January	6th	Commission	mean	that	GOP	electoral	victories	in	Florida	thisNovember	may	no	longer	be	a	certainty.	He	writes	that	the	Democratic	anger	these	developmentsmay	engender	makes	predicting	the	midterm	results	in	the	Sunshine	State	near	impossible.Looking	ahead	to	elections	across	the	US	in	2022,	our	mini-series,	‘The	2022	midterms‘,	explores	aspects	ofelections	at	the	presidential,	Senate,	House	of	Representative	and	state	levels,	and	also	reflects	on	what	theresults	will	mean	for	US	politics	moving	forward.	If	you	are	interested	in	contributing,	please	contact	RobLedger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn	(p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).I	have	an	entire	article	written	about	the	state	of	the	Florida	Republican	and	Democratic	parties,	about	the	anti-incumbent	headwinds	facing	President	Biden,	about	Republican	advantages	in	Florida,	and	demographic	issuesthat	would	confound	the	current	Democratic	coalition.	It	was	a	sober	analysis	that	suggested	the	cost-of-living	crisiswould	demobilize	Democrats,	while	demographic	changes	in	Florida	would	boost	Republican	vote	share	in	several“swing”	counties	in	the	state.	Inflation	ranks	as	the	top	priority	in	most	public	opinion	polls,	and	the	only	tool	forreducing	inflation	sharply	enough	to	benefit	Congressional	Democrats	would	be	to	trigger	a	recession,	which	wouldalso	be	detrimental	for	Democrats’	political	fortunes.	In	Florida	itself,	the	Republican	Party	is	benefiting	from	uniquedemographic	advantages	due	to	its	aggressive	recruitment	of	seniors,	while	the	Democratic	Party	is	unable	to	fieldeffective	candidates	nor	offer	a	coherent	alternative	message	to	rural	and	suburban	voters.And	all	my	previous	analysis	is	irrelevant,	because	Governor	Ron	DeSantis	has	decided	to	attack	the	state’sbiggest	employer,	Justice	Samuel	Alito	has	decided	to	strike	down	federal	abortion	protections,	and	the	January	6thCommission	has	revealed	considerable	evidence	that	former	President	Donald	Trump	and	several	prominentCongressional	Republicans	tried	to	illegally	overturn	the	results	of	the	2020	Presidential	election.In	light	of	these	major	simultaneous	national	stories,	I	wanted	to	instead	discuss	my	decision-making	process	andhow	I	have	concluded	that	predicting	Governor	DeSantis’	and	Senator	Rubio’s	performances	in	November	is	simplytoo	difficult.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be toohard to callPage 1 of 5		Date originally posted: 2022-07-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/07/04/the-2022-midterms-why-the-triumph-of-republican-true-believers-means-the-outcome-in-florida-may-be-too-hard-to-call/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/“President	Donald	J.	Trump	Meets	with	Gov”	Public	Domain	by	The	Trump	White	House	ArchivesPolitical	forecasting	is	based	on	the	idea	of	predictability.	Prediction	in	the	sense	of	data	scientists	is	not	merelyabout	correctly	guessing	the	outcome	in	any	given	election,	but	minimizing	the	number	of	incorrect	guesses	acrossa	number	of	forecasts.	For	example,	a	fair	coin	flip	could	have	more	accurately	predicted	Donald	Trump’s	win	in2016	than	many	forecasts	due	to	the	randomness	of	fair	coins,	but	that	fair	coin	would	have	done	very	poorlypredicting	the	outcomes	of	every	Gubernatorial	race	in	2018.	A	heuristics-based	approach	—	say,	relying	onpundits	to	predict	the	future	—	also	has	a	poor	track	record.Thus,	social	scientists	create	prediction	models	to	improve	upon	random	guesses.	For	decades,	electionforecasters	have	tried	to	use	a	combination	of	polling	—	personal	vote	choice	preference	or	approval	of	theincumbent	—	and	“macro”	factors	—	the	strength	of	the	economy,	whether	the	country	was	at	war,	or	if	theincumbent	party	has	been	in	office	at	least	two	terms	—	to	predict	which	party	or	candidate	would	win	an	election.These	models	leave	things	out	–	they	do	not	account	for	all	potential	attributes	of	a	society	or	political	campaign	butcomprise	only	those	data	necessary	for	accurate	forecasts	–	in	order	to	predict	election	outcomes.	This	is	critical,because	such	models	are	informed	by	existing	academic	theories	of	voter	turnout	and	vote	choice,	meaning	theyare	vulnerable	to	revolutionary	political	shocks.Can	the	Republican	Coalition	Stay	Together?These	forecasts	all	point	to	a	Republican	sweep	of	Florida’s	statewide	offices	in	November	—	barring	majorchanges	to	American	politics.	I	believe	we	are	seeing	those	changes	now.	Republican	animosity	towards	bigbusiness	may	backfire	and	result	in	a	fragmenting	of	their	tenuous	voting	coalition,	while	the	elimination	of	abortionand	reproductive	rights	in	many	states	should	trigger	substantial	voter	backlash.	Yet	the	evidence	of	collectiveRepublican	culpability	for	the	Capitol	insurrection	also	suggests	that	efforts	to	manipulate	the	2022	midterms	tobenefit	Republicans	is	underway.	Thus,	the	probability	of	so-called	“outlier	outcomes”	—	a	building	Democraticwave	or	Republican	dominance	—	is	substantially	higher	than	prediction	models	would	suggest.	My	rationale	is	asfollows.First,	for	decades,	the	Republican	Party	relied	on	being	the	party	of	big	business.	Republicans	could	count	on	largefirms,	and	their	top-ranking	employees,	donating	large	sums	of	money	to	the	party	and	remain	reliable	voters,	andin	turn	Republicans	would	offer	businesses	tax	incentives	and	the	opportunity	to	capture	government	policymakingbodies.	Yet	Republicans	could	not	rely	on	large	firms	to	win	elections,	largely	because	the	executives	of	these	firmscould	not	constitute	a	majority	in	any	electorate.So	Republicans	also	incorporated	into	their	coalition	social	conservatives,	who	do	not	support	the	business	wing’slaissez-faire	approach	to	government.	Instead,	social	conservatives	articulate	a	vision	of	rule	that	involves	heavygovernment	involvement	in	the	private	lives	of	individuals.	This	included	eliminating	the	right	to	abortion,	restrictingaccess	to	contraception,	criminalizing	same-sex	activity,	mandating	Christian	displays	of	faith	in	public	spaces,	andrestrict	immigration	from	non-Christian	societies.	These	ideas	were	irreconcilable	with	the	interests	of	the	businesswing,	who	saw	these	unpopular	intrusions	into	government	life	as	a	threat	—	largely	in	that	it	would	keep	them.Republican	party	leaders	had	a	solution	that	worked	well	for	a	long	time:	promise	major	rollbacks	of	individual	rightsfor	the	social	conservatives,	allow	the	institutions	of	modern	government	—	the	courts,	legislatures,	presidentialvetoes	—	to	block	these	rollbacks,	and	then	say	that	the	struggle	would	continue.	This	was	a	game	where	everyoneunderstood	the	rules:	gin	up	social	conservative	votes,	promise	everything,	deliver	nothing,	rinse	and	repeat.But	eventually	the	solution	failed.	Republican	elites	were	overrun	by	successive	waves	of	true	believers	—	the	1994Contract	with	America,	the	2009-2010	Tea	Party,	and	finally	with	Donald	Trump	in	2016.	These	individuals	did	notunderstand	the	game,	did	not	know	that	the	goal	was	to	block	these	proposals,	and	have	now	begun	to	implementradical	policy	changes.	Governor	DeSantis	has	targeted	Disney	for	even	tepidly	standing	up	for	LGBTQ+	rights	inFlorida.	Samuel	Alito’s	opinion	is	not	nearly	as	explicit	as	Clarence	Thomas’	concurrence,	which	argues	that	therights	to	same-sex	marriage,	same-sex	sexual	activity,	and	even	contraception	should	be	rolled	back.	And	theJanuary	6th	Committee	has	demonstrated	conclusively	—	despite	having	not	even	concluded	its	work	—	thatRepublicans	worked	in	concert	with	Donald	Trump	to	exercise	undemocratic	means	of	holding	onto	power.A	Democratic	resurgence	in	Florida?USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be toohard to callPage 2 of 5		Date originally posted: 2022-07-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/07/04/the-2022-midterms-why-the-triumph-of-republican-true-believers-means-the-outcome-in-florida-may-be-too-hard-to-call/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/What	does	this	have	to	do	with	political	forecasts?	While	it	is	possible	the	traditional	economic	model	applies,	theSupreme	Court’s	decision,	Governor	DeSantis’	decisions,	and	Donald	Trump’s	culpability	may	encouragesignificant	Democratic	anger	at	the	polls	this	year.	These	decisions	will	have	lifelong	and	durable	impacts	—	asmuch	so	if	not	more	so	than	inflation	—	on	the	lives	of	hundreds	of	thousands	of	voting,	and	persuadable,Floridians.	The	executives	of	large	corporations,	concerned	with	Republican	governance,	may	finally	move	withtheir	wallets	and	their	feet	to	Democratic	campaigns.	Uncertainty	over	Disney’s	future	might	make	conservativeDisney	employees,	and	conservative	employees	of	Disney-dependent	firms,	vote	Democratic	for	the	first	time.	Andsocial	conservatives,	who	have	now	caught	the	car,	have	fewer	reasons	to	vote	for	the	Republican	Party	and	couldstay	home	in	November.This	makes	forecasting	much	more	difficult	—	polls-based	models	use	likely	voter	filters,	which	may	miss	out	onlarge	swathes	of	the	eventual	electorate	in	such	an	uncertain	climate.	Conversely,	Democratic	voters	may	react	tothis	avalanche	of	unfavorable	policy	with	apathy,	not	vote,	and	thus	enshrine	social	conservative	governance	foryears.	And	outright	Republican	manipulation	of	the	election	is	now	a	reasonable	expectation.	The	probability	ofsuch	“tail	events”	is	higher	in	2022	than	it	was	in	previous	elections.Normal	election	forecasts	might	resemble	the	—	purely	hypothetical	—	Figure	1	below.	In	it,	a	statewide	vote	shareis	estimated	with	a	range	of	uncertainty	around	it.	You	might	represent	this	uncertainty	in	a	histogram,	showing	theproportion	of	events	that	fall	within	a	certain	range,	or	the	probability	of	individual	outcomes.	The	most-likelyoutcomes	will	be	clustered	toward	the	center	of	a	normal	distribution,	with	less-likely	outcomes	tapering	awaysymmetrically.	Such	an	event	would	indicate	a	solid	Marco	Rubio	win	of	between	5	and	15	percentage	points	basedon	current	polling,	but	with	a	small	probability	of	Democrats	winning.	I	represent	this	graphic	below:Figure	1	–	Hypothetical	model	predicting	Marco	Rubio	wins	based	on	many	simulations.Dotted	vertical	line	represents	the	average	margin	of	victory,	1000	simulations.	Further	left	on	the	x-axis	represents	a	largerDemocratic	margin	of	victory,further	right	on	the	x-axis	represents	a	larger	Republican	margin	of	victory.	A	taller	bar	indicates	thenumber	of	simulations	where	Rubio	receives	a	given	share	of	the	vote.By	contrast,	what	I	believe	these	events	point	to	is	a	world	more	closely	resembling	Figure	2	below.	While	thereremain	many	outcomes	located	at	our	near	the	“normal”	average	outcome	of	a	narrow-but-comfortable	Rubio	win,there	are	considerably	more	“tail-end”	outcomes,	including	those	where	the	Democrats	win	by	large	margins	andthose	where	Republicans	win	by	large	margins.Figure	2	–	Hypothetical	model	predicting	Marco	Rubio	wins	based	on	many	simulations,	increased	‘tailevents’	included.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be toohard to callPage 3 of 5		Date originally posted: 2022-07-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/07/04/the-2022-midterms-why-the-triumph-of-republican-true-believers-means-the-outcome-in-florida-may-be-too-hard-to-call/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Dotted	vertical	line	represents	the	average	margin	of	victory,	1000	simulations.	Further	left	on	the	x-axis	represents	a	largerDemocratic	margin	of	victory,further	right	on	the	x-axis	represents	a	larger	Republican	margin	of	victory.	A	taller	bar	indicates	thenumber	of	simulations	where	Rubio	receives	a	given	share	of	the	vote.These	tail-end	outcomes	represent	added	uncertainties	as	outlined	above.	Democrats	may	be	energized	to	votedue	to	the	Supreme	Court’s	decisions,	Republicans	may	splinter	as	a	result	of	social	conservatives	attackingbusiness	conservatives,	and	Republican	activists	may	be	less	motivated	after	“winning”	policy	concessions	via	thecourts.	Therefore	we	have	more	predictions	of	a	Democratic	win	that	won’t	manifest	in	prediction	models,particularly	polls-based	models,	for	weeks	or	months.	Or	they	might	not	at	all,	given	recent	Republican	recalcitranceto	participate	in	public	opinion	polling.At	the	other	end,	these	recent	events	may	trigger	mass	Democratic	apathy	and	disenchantment	with	politics.Republican	activists	may	be	emboldened	by	policy	wins.	And	the	January	6th	Commission	has	clearlydemonstrated	that	the	Republican	Party	and	its	membership	view	electoral	manipulation	as	acceptable,	andrecently	information	suggests	election	meddling	is	being	institutionalized	across	the	Republican	party	in	its	stateand	local	branches.	Therefore,	we	have	more	predictions	of	a	larger	Republican	win	that	may	not	manifest	inpolling.And	for	these	reasons,	I	do	not	know	whether	Ron	DeSantis	or	Marco	Rubio	will	win	their	races	this	fall.	They	mightwin	outright.	They	might	lose,	but	be	emboldened	by	the	absence	of	an	indictment	against	Donald	Trump	andtherefore	overturn	a	democratic	election.	They	might	lose	outright	and	accept	the	outcome.	A	decade	ago,	I	wouldhave	assigned	an	incredibly	low	probability	to	the	latter	two	outcomes,	but	today	the	probability	is	substantially	highenough	that	I	do	not	have	high	confidence	in	any	individual	outcome.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	norof	the	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/3NGHCbnAbout	the	authorUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be toohard to callPage 4 of 5		Date originally posted: 2022-07-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/07/04/the-2022-midterms-why-the-triumph-of-republican-true-believers-means-the-outcome-in-florida-may-be-too-hard-to-call/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Kevin	Fahey	–	University	of	NottinghamKevin	Fahey	is	an	Assistant	Professor	in	Politics	in	the	School	of	Politics	&	International	Studies	at	theUniversity	of	Nottingham,	having	previously	worked	at	Swansea	University	and	Cardiff	University.	Heearned	his	PhD	from	Florida	State	University	in	2017.	He	is	interested	in	applying	quantitativeresearch	methods	to	substantive	questions,	and	has	ongoing	interdisciplinary	work	in	criminology,psychology,	and	public	administration.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: The 2022 Midterms: Why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be toohard to callPage 5 of 5		Date originally posted: 2022-07-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022/07/04/the-2022-midterms-why-the-triumph-of-republican-true-believers-means-the-outcome-in-florida-may-be-too-hard-to-call/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

The 2022 Midterms: why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be too hard to call

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The 2022 Midterms: why the triumph of Republican true believers means the outcome in Florida may be too hard to call

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