Integrated Projection and Regression Models for Monitoring Multivariate Autocorrelated Cascade Processes

Abstract

This dissertation presents a comprehensive methodology of dual monitoring for the multivariate autocorrelated cascade processes using principal component analysis and regression. Principle Components Analysis is used to alleviate the multicollinearity among input process variables and reduce the dimension of the variables. An integrated principal components selection rule is proposed to reduce the number of input variables. An autoregressive time series model is used and imposed on the time correlated output variable which depends on many multicorrelated process input variables. A generalized least squares principal component regression is used to describe the relationship between product and process variables under the autoregressive regression error model. The combined residual based EWMA control chart, applied to the product characteristics, and the MEWMA control charts applied to the multivariate autocorrelated cascade process characteristics, are proposed. The dual EWMA and MEWMA control chart has advantage and capability over the conventional residual type control chart applied to the residuals of the principal component regression by monitoring both product and the process characteristics simultaneously. The EWMA control chart is used to increase the detection performance, especially in the case of small mean shifts. The MEWMA is applied to the selected set of variables from the first principal component with the aim of increasing the sensitivity in detecting process failures. The dual implementation control chart for product and process characteristics enhances both the detection and the prediction performance of the monitoring system of the multivariate autocorrelated cascade processes. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through an example of the sugar-beet pulp drying process. A general guideline for controlling multivariate autocorrelated processes is also developed

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