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Predictability associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclones as defined by operational ensemble prediction systems

Abstract

The poleward movement of a decaying tropical cyclone often results in a rapidly-moving, explosively-deepening midlatitude cyclone. The re-intensification of the remnant tropical cyclone as an extratropical cyclone depends on the phasing between the decaying tropical cyclone and a midlatitude environment that is favorable for midlatitude cyclogenesis (Klein et al. 2001). Because of the typical rapid translation speed (Jones et al. 2003) of the decaying tropical cyclone, accurate extended-range prediction of the phasing between the remnant tropical circulation and the midlatitude environment into which it is moving is critical.This research has been supported by the Office of Naval Research, Marine Meteorology

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