Sequential Choices, Option Values, and the Returns to Education

Abstract

Using detailed Norwegian data on earnings and education histories, we estimate a dynamic structural model of schooling and work decisions that captures our data's rich patterns over the life-cycle. We validate the model against variation in schooling choices induced by a compulsory schooling reform. Our approach allows us to estimate the ex-ante returns to different schooling tracks at different stages of the life-cycle and quantify the contribution of option values. We find substantial heterogeneity in returns and establish crucial roles for option values and re-enrollment in determining schooling choices and the impact of schooling policies