Apprendre du passé pour prédire le futur : réponses des poissons migrateurs amphihalins européens au changement climatique

Abstract

International audienceClimate change can have an effect on species distributions. The 1900 distribution and potential future distribution of diadromous fish in Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East were explored using generalized additive models (GAMs) and selected habitat characteristics of 196 basins. Robust presenceabsence models were built for 20 of the 28 diadromous species in the study area using longitude, annual temperature, drainage surface area, annual precipitation, and source elevation as explanatory variables. Inspection of the relationship between each variable and species presenceabsence revealed that the GAMs were generally interpretable and plausible. Given the predicted rise in annual temperature in climate models ranging between 18C and 78C by 2100, the fish species were classified according to those losing suitable basins, those gaining suitable basins, and those showing little or no change. It was found that the climate envelopes based on temperature and precipitation for diadromous species would, in general, be shifted farther northeastwards by 2100, and these shifting ranges were comparable with those assessed in other studies. The uncertain future of some species was highlighted, and it was concluded that conservation policy and management plans will need to be revised in the face of climate change