Spaniol, Matthew J.

The “roadmap” is a popular tool that aids diverse actors in coordinating research, policy, and investment. Roadmapping is a highly generative process that creates much more information than is contained in any finalized roadmap. Therefore, information is selectively incorporated. The authors contend that readers can enrich their understanding of roadmaps by gaining insight into information that is used to create them, but that is ultimately discarded during the process. To the public, this discarded information is opaque and effectively unavailable. This paper examines the production of a roadmap, developed by ECOPRODIGI, an initiative of the Interreg VB Baltic Sea Programme, for the transition to eco-efficient shipping. Results indicate that initially reasonable ideas ultimately get excluded in the final roadmap due to a number of constraints, namely, limits of time, imagination, and the format of the roadmap itself. In the end, the position of elements on any finalized roadmap are shaped by excluded, now “hidden,” ideas. Adopting a reflexive tone, the authors conclude by considering how, why, and when actors prioritize certain types of information over others in the production and presentation of roadmaps

Roskilde Universitet

RoskildeUniversityThe Road(map) Not TakenNavigating Sustainable Shipping TransitionsSpaniol, Matthew J.Publication date:2022Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordCitation for published version (APA):Spaniol, M. J. (2022). The Road(map) Not Taken: Navigating Sustainable Shipping Transitions. Abstract from7th World Maritime Technology Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain.            • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact rucforsk@kb.dk providing details, and we will remove access to the workimmediately and investigate your claim.Download date: 25. Jul. 2022Road(map) not takenMatthew J. SpaniolMarie LützenNiels Gorm RytterNicholas J. RowlandRoskilde UniversityAssistant Professor & FellowAarhus BSS, Aarhus UniversityPost-Doctoral FellowDanske MaritimeePhD FellowPERISCOPEProject ManagerCIFSForesight AnalystDr. Matthew SpaniolAssistant ProfessorDept. of People and TechnologyRoskilde UniversityEmail: matt@ruc.dkTel: 5012 6444Expertise:▪ Strategic foresight▪ Sociology of science and technology (STS)▪ Maritime & ocean economies▪ Scenario-based strategizing▪ Open innovation▪ Business model innovationSTS & Science StudiesThe provision of certified knowledge3Robert K. MertonParadigm shiftThomas KuhnScience is cultureBruno LatourLogical constructivismJens BartelsonAnnamarie MolOntological multiplicitySergio SismondoControversy & closureLaboratory StudiesBruno LatourEthnographySTSScholarly community of futures and foresight researchers Groups construct ficticious”personas” who interprit and act in futures Groups create futures in the present to plan  Futures & foresight science as an scholarly diciplineapplied foresight toolboxSystems analysisSERVICE SPECTRUM STRATEGIC PRIORITY OFFERING TYPE TARGET SEGMENTS OPERATING MODEL CUSTOMERFACING ML, AI + MORE TECH.SECURITYServices offered by telco ranging from complete set of banking services to focused offeringsPrimary differentiating capability that guide overarching strategic objectivesType of offering ranging from solutions to enabling services or a platformKey clients and industries of strategic importanceModel for developing new offerings, in whatever layer, and bringing them to market.Use and reliance on machine learning and artificial intelligence in customer facing servicesMeasures to ensure security of services including use of Distributed Ledger (Blockchain), ML, AI, and other technologiesFULL SPECTRUMDevelop full spectrum of banking servicesCUSTOMER INTIMACYAim to build long- term client relationships by prioritizing customer’s requirements and delivering bespoke solutions.SOLUTIONDevelop integrated solutionthat can be offered under own brand or as white labeled servicesB2BFocus on B2B customersonly: efficiency, speed and robustness are keyPARTNERSHIP /  COLLABORATIONPartner with the best providers of components and platforms for whatever service.HUMAN INTERACTIONKey differentiator is engaged and personalized human customer service. Digitisation and automation enable customer agents to deliver efficient service.FULLSTACK SECURITYBlockchain, AI, ML, and other technologies evolve to provide connectivity solutions that are highly secure and able to both predict and prevent attacks.PAYMENTS /  TRANSACTIONSFocus on highly competitive payment and transaction servicesCOST LEADERSHIPAim to provide products at competitive prices. Streamlining processes and product offerings to lift economies of scale.COMPONENTFocus on providing new and optimized technologies, solution elementsGENERATION X AND EARLIERFocus on customers that are used to human interaction and often wary towards fully digitized servicesACQUISITIONAcquire relevant service providers to bring competencies in-house.MIXA mix of digital services and human interaction supported by intelligence services is used to deliver personalized solutionsSTATUS QUOVulnerability is kept on todays level. DDoS attacks, malware, fraud, and data breaches continue to occur. SAVINGS & LOANS Focus on slower moving savings and loan servicesPRODUCT EXCELLENCEAim to be at the forefront of technological development through continuous innovation and R&D. PLATFORMOffer the technological infrastructure, develop standards, operating system, etc.GENERATIONS Y, Z, +Focus on customers that feel comfortable in a fully digitized world.IN-HOUSE DEVELOPMENTInvest in developing or acquiring the necessary competencies internallySELF-SERVICEML, AI, process automation and digitization are used to develop best- in-class self-service based customer journey.FOCUS ON RESILIENCEBuild up OF resilience capabilities (damage control) rather than prevention.Strategy playboxesScenariosMarket ReadyArea 1Area 4Foresight radars Technology roadmappingTrend auditingDelphiBackcastingWargamingTechnology forecastingStrategic foresight+ =Distributed KnowledgeEffectiveStrategyzingSERVICE SPECTRUM STRATEGIC PRIORITY OFFERING TYPE TARGET SEGMENTS OPERATING MODEL CUSTOMERFACING ML, AI + MORE TECH.SECURITYServices offered by telco ranging from complete set of banking services to focused offeringsPrimary differentiating capability that guide overarching strategic objectivesType of offering ranging from solutions to enabling services or a platformKey clients and industries of strategic importanceModel for developing new offerings, in whatever layer, and bringing them to market.Use and reliance on machine learning and artificial intelligence in customer facing servicesMeasures to ensure security of services including use of Distributed Ledger (Blockchain), ML, AI, and other technologiesFULL SPECTRUMDevelop full spectrum of banking servicesCUSTOMER INTIMACYAim to build long- term client relationships by prioritizing customer’s requirements and delivering bespoke solutions.SOLUTIONDevelop integrated solutionthat can be offered under own brand or as white labeled servicesB2BFocus on B2B customersonly: efficiency, speed and robustness are keyPARTNERSHIP /  COLLABORATIONPartner with the best providers of components and platforms for whatever service.HUMAN INTERACTIONKey differentiator is engaged and personalized human customer service. Digitisation and automation enable customer agents to deliver efficient service.FULLSTACK SECURITYBlockchain, AI, ML, and other technologies evolve to provide connectivity solutions that are highly secure and able to both predict and prevent attacks.PAYMENTS /  TRANSACTIONSFocus on highly competitive payment and transaction servicesCOST LEADERSHIPAim to provide products at competitive prices. Streamlining processes and product offerings to lift economies of scale.COMPONENTFocus on providing new and optimized technologies, solution elementsGENERATION X AND EARLIERFocus on customers that are used to human interaction and often wary towards fully digitized servicesACQUISITIONAcquire relevant service providers to bring competencies in-house.MIXA mix of digital services and human interaction supported by intelligence services is used to deliver personalized solutionsSTATUS QUOVulnerability is kept on todays level. DDoS attacks, malware, fraud, and data breaches continue to occur. SAVINGS & LOANS Focus on slower moving savings and loan servicesPRODUCT EXCELLENCEAim to be at the forefront of technological development through continuous innovation and R&D. PLATFORMOffer the technological infrastructure, develop standards, operating system, etc.GENERATIONS Y, Z, +Focus on customers that feel comfortable in a fully digitized world.IN-HOUSE DEVELOPMENTInvest in developing or acquiring the necessary competencies internallySELF-SERVICEML, AI, process automation and digitization are used to develop best- in-class self-service based customer journey.FOCUS ON RESILIENCEBuild up OF resilience capabilities (damage control) rather than prevention.Market ReadyArea 1Area 4Tools forFuture ThinkingROADMAP TO SHIPYARD 4.0ROADMAP INTEGRATED SHIP OPERATIONSThe road not taken by Robert Frost (1916)Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,And sorry I could not travel bothAnd be one traveler, long I stoodAnd looked down one as far as I couldTo where it bent in the undergrowth;Then took the other, as just as fair,And having perhaps the better claim,Because it was grassy and wanted wear;Though as for that the passing thereHad worn them really about the same,And both that morning equally layIn leaves no step had trodden black.Oh, I kept the first for another day!Yet knowing how way leads on to way,I doubted if I should ever come back.I shall be telling this with a sighSomewhere ages and ages hence:Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—I took the one less traveled by,And that has made all the difference.Purpose of the roadmaps• anticipation of changes that are forthcoming in the industry• engaging wider stakeholders from outside the consortium in dialogue and input• developing materials to help policymakers define and structure policies that will further the regions’ ongoing success in the maritime and marine sectorsResearch question: What doesn’t get roadmapped and why?P: PrinciplesC: CriteriaE: ExplanationUn-forecastableOut of scopeBygone technologiesImplausibilityImpossibilityUnstableNot aesthetically pleasingNot already hereE: In order to be forecastable, the element must be a discrete event, and must be answerable to the question: When will this become accepted practice or commercially available? P: The critical structure of the roadmap is the X axis that depicts “time” or years into the future.C: Is the element forecastable?1E: Because the focus of the project was primarily concernedwith the upgrading of the existing fleet of vessels, there were no project partners that could contribute with sufficient knowledge about electrofuels. Similarly, subsurface dronesthat scan harbors are not included.P: Elements must be actionable by the representatives of the project partnersC: Is the element out of scope?2E: Lightweight containers were considered. However, all though they are not currently used in practice in any significant quantity, they have been around and available for a long time.P: The roadmap has to be novelC: Is the element deemed a “bygone” technology?4E: Implausible technologies would not be taken seriously by users, for example “game controllers for vessel navigation.” Including it may go against acceptable dialogue, and risk that the other elements – by association – call the entire roadmap into question.P: The roadmap should be taken seriouslyC: Is the element deemed to be implausible?5E: Nearly all of the elements had at least one rater thinking that “will never happen.” However, none of them had 100% of raters believing that it will never happen. These were not displayed - there would be no roadmap.P: The roadmap should be aesthetically pleasingC: Is the element deemed to be possible?6E: The individual ratings, displayed in the violin plots, were discarded in favor of the singular median rating. P: The roadmap should support or create opportunities for inter-organizational project developmentC: Is the information stable enough to be deemed an opportunity?7E: Some events were rated as “already here,” but this could be overcome by reformulating the element by injecting more technological capabilities, such as “powered by AI.”P: The roadmap should be about the futureC: Is the element deemed to be already here?8Research question: What information isn’t on the roadmap?P: PrinciplesC: CriteriaE: ExplanationUn-forecastableOut of scopeBypassed technologiesImplausibilityImpossibilityUnstableNot aesthetically pleasingNot already hereSTRATEGIC FORESIGHT MATTHEW SPANIOL, PHDINTERNATIONAL MRV: CENTRALIZED DATA REPOSITORY FOR FLEETMaritime transport emits around 940 million tonnes of CO2 annually and is responsible for about2.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Establishing a central data warehouse wouldrequire a standardization of the digital data file formats that national regulatory bodies can agreeto. In turn, this can inform efforts to develop maritime carbon and emission trading schemes.Median Mode Mean Avg+1std dev. % already here % never happen2026 2025 July/2027 Dec/2031 8% 13%Thank youMatthew Spaniolmatt@ruc.dk

English

The Road(map) Not Taken:Navigating Sustainable Shipping Transitions

https://forskning.ruc.dk/files/81001475/Spaniol_2022_Roadmap_not_taken_WMTC_Copenhagen_DK.pdf

The Road(map) Not Taken:Navigating Sustainable Shipping Transitions

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Roskilde Universitet