Byers, E.

Djilali, N.

Krey, V.

McCollum, D.

Parkinson, S.

Riahi, K.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Modelling integrated SDG pathways:A case study analysis of goals 6, 7, 12 and 13Simon ParkinsonVolker Krey, David McCollum, Edward Byers, Ned Djilali and Keywan Riahi11th Annual IAMC Meeting, Seville, Spain, November 2018 • The World in 2050 (TWI2050) is a global research initiative in support of a successful implementation of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda. • The goal is to provide the fact-based knowledge to support the policy process and implementation of the SDGs.Some previous work• GEA (2012), van Vuuren et al. (2015)– Pathways to achieve multiple sustainability targets• Kim et al. (2016)– Balancing water availability and use at the basin-scale in GCAM• Gao and Bryan (2017)– Integrated SDG pathways from a land-use perspective for AustraliaResearch Questions• How can we quantify interactions between water, energy and climate SDGs?• How might sustainable consumption behavior impact SDG implementation costs?`IIASA Global IAM FrameworkConsistent climate and human development assumptionsConsistent systemstransformation scenariosMESSAGEix(Energy)CWatM(Water)GLOBIOM(Land)Water Demands& InfrastructureWater AvailabilityLand-cover &Irrigation scheduleWater AvailabilityLand Mitigation / Bioenergy PotentialLand MitigationBioenergyObjective of Global IAM Development Integrated representation of water-energy-land transformationIntegrated SDG PoliciesImplementation costs and other environmental impactsFricko et al. 2017;  Burek et al. 2018Scenario analysis• SSP2 setup from Fricko et al. (2017)• Energy SDG and Paris Agreement policies implemented as in McCollum et al. (2018)• New water SDG indicators for water access, treatment, efficiency and stress.• Comparison between scenarios with and without multiple SDG policies to understand incremental investment costs`Fraction of withdrawals from improved sourcesBaseline SDG6 PathwayAccess to piped water infrastructure under different scenariosSouth AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaEastern EuropeM. East & N. AfricaLatin AmericaFormer SovietPacific OceanicWestern EuropePacific AsiaNorth AmericaCentral Asia (China)Target 6.1Universal access to safe drinking water by 2030Increased investment into water distribution and wastewater collection`Baseline SDG6 PathwayFraction of return-flow treatedAccess to wastewater treatment under different scenariosSouth AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaEastern EuropeM. East & N. AfricaLatin AmericaFormer SovietPacific OceanicWestern EuropePacific AsiaNorth AmericaCentral Asia (China)Target 6.3Half of all wastewater treated by 2030Increased investment into wastewater treatmentProjecting infrastructure gaps under clean water goals(difference between SDG6 and baseline scenario)Water-stressed regions need to find unconventional sources of freshwater supply to meet increasing demands for water!Parkinson et al. (2018)`Projecting infrastructure demand under clean water goalsCriteria for expansionDistance to coastlineWater stress level from hydrological modelLow stressMed stressHigh stressExpected capacity in 2030 [ million cubic meters ] RecyclingDesalWhere can we expect advanced water technologies to expand?`Long-term energy planning under water efficiency constraintsSDG6 pathways are constrained to consume 10% less water by 2030 than in 2010Phase out of once-through coolingGlobal Investment PortfoliosAverage annual investments 2015 to 2030Preliminary results: Do not cite or quoteCompared to BaselineRegional Investments2015-2030, compared to baselinePreliminary results: Do not cite or quoteIncorporating representation of sustainable energy consumptionGruebler et al. (2018)`Influence of energy efficiency on water costsPreliminary results: Do not cite or quote20302070Conclusions• Adding the SDG6 target on top of Paris Agreement increases mitigation costs due:– Increased energy demand for water treatment– Water efficiency investments and interplay with power plant cooling choices– Total investment costs increase by up to 8% – Note: this does not account for avoided adaptation costs• Water and energy conservation can significantly reduce implementation costs• Future work: Add more SDG indicators to quantify additional interactionsThank you!

Modelling integrated SDG pathways: A case study analysis of

goals 6, 7, 12 and 13

http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17321/1/parkinson_iamc_2018.pdf

Modelling integrated SDG pathways: A case study analysis of goals 6, 7, 12 and 13

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