Well planned breeding program refers to achieving the advancement through selection of milking cattle. One of the most significant parameters of achieved results was the selection effect. The aim of this research was to show potential selection results which can be achieved in optimized breeding conditions for domestic population of milking cattle. Potential effects for the most important milk yield traits were estimated in standard lactation: milk yield, milk fat content and milk fat yield. Values of parameters that were used during the estimation were taken based on data from literature that engages in this type of research. Estimated selection effects in simulation I for milk yield, milk fat content and milk fat yield were 134,84 kg; 0,0258% i 4,95 kg. In second simulation estimated selection effect for same traits was: 217,55 kg; 0,029% i 7,87 kg. Results of conducted simulation point out at significant potential, meaning that in future period in order to put that potential to realization certain conditions have to be created by selective breeding work.Dobro osmišljen odgajivački program ima za cilj postizanje selekcijskog napretka u populacijama mlečnih goveda. Jedan od najznačajnijih pokazatelja rezulata postignutih na ovaj način jeste efekat selekcije. Cilj rada bio je da prikaže potencijalne rezulate selekcije koji se mogu postići u domaćoj populaciji mlečnih goveda u optimizovanim uslovima odgajivanja. Procenjeni su potencijalni efekti za najvažnije osobine mlečnosti u standardnoj laktaciji: prinos mleka, sadržaj mlečne masti i prinos mlečne masti. Vrednosti parametara korišćenih prilikom procene uzeti su na osnovu podataka iz literature koja se bavi ovom problematikom. Procenjeni efekti selekcije u simulaciji I za osobine prinos mleka, sadržaj mlečne masti i prinos mlečne masti iznosili su 134,84 kg; 0,0258% i 4,95 kg. U smulaciji II procenjeni efekat selekcije za iste osobine bio je: 217,55 kg; 0,029% i 7,87 kg. Rezultati urađene simulacije ukazuju na značajan potencijal, te u narednom periodu trebalo bi odgajivačkim radom stvoriti uslove kako bi se značajan deo tog potencijala i realizovao
