Climate Change and Variability: Producers\u27 Perceptions and Determinants of Adaptation Strategies in Rice Farming in Chitwan, Nepal

Abstract

Nepalese agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change. Rice is the most important cereal crop (as a staple food) in terms of area cultivated each year in Nepal. This study analyzes rice producers’ perceptions of climate change, its impacts on rice farming, and factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies of the producers. The analysis of survey data of 359 rice-producing households in the South-Central Terai region of Nepal indicated that rice producers perceived changes in local weather patterns as compared to the past year. Trend analysis (1981-2018) of weather data (temperature and rainfall) from a local meteorological station strongly supports producers’ perceptions. Results revealed that producers are adopting a number of adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change in rice farming, they were adjustment in crop calendar (72.9%), varietal selection (64.9%), investment in improved irrigation (60.7%), adoption of integrated pest management (22.1%), and adoption of direct-seeded rice (15.6%). Results indicated that 76.6% of producers were adopting at least one adaptation strategy, and 10% of producers were adopting all those five strategies. Lack of adequate information, limited technical know-how, and credit constraints are major factors that impede adaptation to climate change. Results indicates that the average rice yield of adopters was 227 Kilogram/Hectare higher than that of non-adapters. A multivariate probit model (MVP) and an ordered probit model (OPM) were used to examine factors influencing the rate of adoption of adaptation strategies and to estimate drivers of the intensity of adoption, respectively. Results of a multivariate probit model revealed complementarities among adaptation strategies indicating their adoption is inter-related. This result has important policy implications that enhancement of one strategy can have spillover effects on other strategies. Results revealed that human capital formation through education, literacy programs, formal and informal training help in making a better farming decision, increase awareness about the impacts of climate change, and can further enhance adoption of adaptation strategies on rice farming. Results of the intensity of adoption indicated that male headed household, education, awareness about climate change, use of Extension, training, and information are significant to improve intensity of adoption

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