Silver production in 17th- century Spanish America: a preliminary analysis of its volatility, trajectory and possible effects on the Castilian monetary system
This paper presents a preliminary analysis of volatility in Peruvian and Mexican silver production series throughout the 17th-century, based on ARCH/GARCH models. Through a comparison of volatility patterns in the two viceroyalties, hypotheses on investor behaviour will be put forward and compared to theories on the relationship between risk and the development of merchant networks. Trends of silver production will be compared to trends of exchange rate series registered in Seville, exploring the possibility of a link between exchange rates in Seville and metal production in either viceroyalties
