Fuel choices for different transport modes when decarbonizing the scandinavian energy system

Abstract

To meet future climate targets, shipping, aviation, and road transport need to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. This partly by the introduction of alternative transportation fuels and a range of fuel options exist. This study provides an initial assessment of cost-effective future fuel choices for shipping, aviation and road transport in Scandinavia considering carbon reduction requirements and the entire energy system. The cost minimizing energy systems model TIMES Nordic covering Sweden, Norway and Denmark is used. For passenger and freight road transport a considerable electrification seems cost-effective. However, biofuels are needed too, not least in shipping and aviation. The findings indicate that biomass-based marine fuels and bio-jet fuels represent cost-effective mitigation measures in the shipping and aviation sector for 2030 and 2050 in all studied scenario cases. Electrofuels in the aviation and shipping sector is to some extent also a cost-effective option but only when carbon capture and storage is not deployed in large-scale. In general, the development of carbon capture and storage for biomass-based technologies and how these negative emissions will be considered in policy making is important for the development also in the transport sector and particularly for the role of biofuels