[EN] The mobile applications business is a really big market, growing constantly. In app marketing, a key issue is to predict
future app installations. The influence of the peers seems to be very relevant when downloading apps. Therefore, the
study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence
of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological
type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to
predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app in the market
in the short term looking at its evolution in the early days of its launch. The numerical results provided by the proposed
network are compared with data from real apps. This comparison shows that predictions improve as the model is fed
back. Marketing researchers and strategy business managers can benefit from the proposed model since it can be helpful
to predict app behavior over the time anticipating the spread of an appAlegre-Sanahuja, J.; Cortés, J.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Santonja, F. (2017). Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach. Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation. 94(2):123-130. https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549717712600S12313094