Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Dead Crow Reports Associated with a West Nile Virus Epidemic

Abstract

[[abstract]]We apply the Space-Time AutoRegressive Moving Average (STARMA) modeling methods in an investigation of the spreading dynamics of a West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic in crows in the Detroit Metro area in 2002. The data fit very closely those expected from a purely STAR (Space-Time AutoRegressive) process having low spatial and temporal orders. The model can be used to characterize the past and possibly even predict the future dynamics of spreading behavior and, most importantly, to provide information about the factors which govern the spreading behavior. Use of the STARMA model allows estimation of the rate of spread of WNV at different spatial scales and thus characterization of the spatial and temporal scales expected. Determination of spatial-temporal autoregressive parameters using STARMA holds considerable promise for characterizing emerging infectious diseases