This paper presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in
graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are
algebraic varieties.
From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are
coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an
efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. The question addressed here
is how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model
parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic
geometry. A key role is played by the Newton polytope of a statistical model.
Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and to the general Markov
model on a binary tree.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Major revision. Applications now in companion
paper, "Parametric Inference for Biological Sequence Analysis