State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatures. This model accounts for 70-95% of the intermodel variance, with the majority of the spread arising from present-day biases. The remaining spread arises from model differences in Arctic warming, with some contribution from the local sea-ice sensitivity. Using observations to constrain the projections moves the probability of an ice-free Arctic forward by 10-35 years. Under a high-emissions scenario, an ice-free Arctic will likely (66% probability) occur in September around 2046 and from July-October around 2059. Under a medium-emissions scenario, this date occurs around 2051 in September and 2080 from July-October. These observation-based constraints imply ice-free Arctic summers are approaching faster than previously thought
