Arroyo, Leire Basaras

Laz, Alak

Osman, Hasan Mustafa Mahamed

Ràdut, Teodora-Francesca

Vrablova, Sofia

The SIR model is a basic epidemic model which describes how infectious diseases spread among people in a large population over time. The SIR model does not take into consideration the spatial distribution of the diseases; for this reason, this report first aims to develop the simple SIR model into a spatio-temporal SIR model. The new extended SIR model is able to show the spatial distribution of an epidemic outbreak. Furthermore, this project aims to apply the spatio-temporal SIR model to Swedish data from smallpox disease which is an infectious disease that was responsible for 300,000 deaths during the 18th century. After the eradication of the disease, the vaccination campaign was stopped, and people are not protected against the disease anymore. Nowadays smallpox disease is an ideal candidate for a bioterrorism weapon; having a mathematical model that could predict what will happen in case of an epidemic outbreak, will enable epidemiologists and healthcare professionals to develop strategies in order to prevent the spread of the disease. The model was able to show a spatial distribution of a smallpox epidemic and the parameter α introduced in this model as a spatial parameter was estimated as well. The results when analysing the Swedish data did not confirm that smallpox disease spread spatially over Sweden

Spatio-temporal SIR Model of Infectious Diseases

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Roskilde Universitet