The Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) fleet is a legacy left behind by the Cold War era when trans-regional and inter-continental range bombers were part of the nuclear triad. The United States (US) and the Soviet Union maintained LRSBs primarily to support nuclear missions but during the height of the Cold War, these bombers were also kept ready for conventional missions. China has been working for a long to develop LRSBs to put in place a credible nuclear triad. China has redefined its strategic boundaries and is asserting to break the myth of the ‘first and second island chains' to project power beyond these geographical bottlenecks through maritime and air power. The strategic bombers give China flexibility to gain access to the Western Pacific and north-south movement along the Asian seaboard to complement its Anti-Access/Area Denial (AA/AD) strategy

Kumar, Narendra

English

The Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) fleet is a legacy left behind by the Cold War era when trans-regional and inter-continental range bombers were part of the nuclear triad. The United States (US) and the Soviet Union maintained LRSBs primarily to support nuclear missions but during the height of the Cold War, these bombers were also kept ready for conventional missions. China has been working for a long to develop LRSBs to put in place a credible nuclear triad.
China has redefined its strategic boundaries and is asserting to break the myth of the ‘first and second island chains' to project power beyond these geographical bottlenecks through maritime and air power. The strategic bombers give China flexibility to gain access to the Western Pacific and north-south movement along the Asian seaboard to complement its Anti-Access/Area Denial (AA/AD) strategy.&nbsp

Kumar, N. (Narender)

Neliti

China's Long Range Bombers a Strategic Challenge to the Region

The Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) fleet is a legacy left behind by the Cold War era when trans-regional and inter-continental range bombers were part of the nuclear triad. The United States (US) and the Soviet Union maintained LRSBs primarily to support nuclear missions but during the height of the Cold War, these bombers were also kept ready for conventional missions. China has been working for a long to develop LRSBs to put in place a credible nuclear triad. China has redefined its strategic boundaries and is asserting to break the myth of the ‘first and second island chains\u27 to project power beyond these geographical bottlenecks through maritime and air power. The strategic bombers give China flexibility to gain access to the Western Pacific and north-south movement along the Asian seaboard to complement its Anti-Access/Area Denial (AA/AD) strategy

CLAWS Journal

CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 185China’s Long Range Bombers a Strategic Challenge to the RegionNarender KumarIntroductionThe Long Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) fleet is a legacy left behind by the Cold War era when trans-regional and inter-continental range bombers were part of the nuclear triad. The United States (US) and Soviet Union maintained LRSBs primarily to support nuclear missions but during the height of the Cold War, these bombers were also kept ready for conventional missions. China has been working for long to develop LRSBs to put in place a credible nuclear triad. China has redefined its strategic boundaries and is asserting to break the myth of the ‘first and second island chains’ to project power beyond these geographical bottlenecks through maritime and air power. The strategic bombers give China flexibility to gain access to the Western Pacific and north-south movement along the Asian seaboard to complement its Anti-Access/Area Denial (AA/AD) strategy.1 In view of this, the modernised H-6K bomber of China has a combat radius of roughly 2,200 miles (3,541 km), just adequate to reach the proximity of Guam, the US maritime base. 2 The H-6K was designed primarily Brigadier Narender Kumar (Retd) is a former Senior Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies and presently a Distinguished Fellow at USI of India.186  CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019as a cruise missile carrier. The bomber is considered to be purely for conventional use rather than as part of the nuclear triad. It can carry six CJ-10K or YJ-12 long-range land attack and anti-ship cruise missiles on its wings and potentially several more inside its weapon bays. That makes it a threat to not only the US and allied shipping, but also to bases on the islands and the mainland.3 After years of speculation, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Commander, General Ma Xiaotian, publicly confirmed in September 2016 that China was developing a “next generation, long-range strike bomber”.4 This will be accomplished by designing the H-20 in the flying wing layout to mirror the stealth advantages that the US and next-generation Russian bombers derive from this configuration.5 Second, the bomber will be capable of conducting “ultra-long range” missions. The new bomber (H-20) has an intercontinental flying range of more than 10,000 km and combat radius of over 5,000 km.6 Stealth technology continues to play a key role in the development of these new bombers, which probably will reach initial operational capability by 2025.7 In view of this, there is a need to examine the current and future capabilities of the LRSBs of China to assess the implications in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Strategic Signalling The 2018 RAND Report notes that in 2015, the PLAAF flew the LRSB that was described as a major milestone of breaking through the first and second chains of islands and flying into the Western Pacific region.8 It was a departure from the defensive approach to an assertive PLAAF that carried out combat air patrols over disputed territories in the South China Sea including the Fiery Cross Reef, Scarborough Shoal, Mischief Reef and Woody Island.9 These flights were a demonstration of the PLAAF’s willingness to challenge the US and its allies in the region and to break the geographical and strategic containment in the Western Pacific Ocean. NARENDER KUMARCLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 187The decision to publicise the PLAAF’s flights in the South China Sea was significant because of the message being conveyed to both the internal and external audience.10Furthermore, the RAND report also flags certain important implications of these flights over the first and second chains of islands and Western Pacific Ocean. The report suggests it to be a strategic signalling; a step towards making the PLAAF a world class force to deal with future security challenges and an indication that China is acquiring capabilities to bring the US strategic locations in the Pacific Ocean within the range of its LRSBs. Therefore, the US needs to take all possible measures to dissuade China from such a coercive policy and also build consensus among its regional allies to mitigate the negative impacts of these flights undermining the US policy of containment of China within the first and second chains of islands.China has demonstrated the ability to conduct over the sea operations against any perceived encirclement or containment by regional and extra-regional powers. This is also a direct message to the US and its regional allies that it is now capable of employing LRSBs if Chinese sovereignty is questioned over the disputed territories in the South China Sea and East China Sea. At the same time, China will continue to develop capabilities to bring the US island territories of Guam and Hawaii within the range of the LRSBs in the near future. It could also be a signal that China will be in a position to establish the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the disputed territories as soon as it is confident of its capabilities to use force against nations that violate the ADIZ.With the increasing Chinese economic activities across Asia, Africa and island countries in the IOR, China will be compelled to increase its military footprints to protect Chinese strategic and economic interests. Therefore, China would require power projection capabilities to secure its interest. China may create maritime and land bases in the littoral states in the IOR, however, this would require long range bombers to assert its dominance and capabilities. Long range bombers comprise not only CHINA’S LONG RANGE BOMBERS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE TO THE REGION188  CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019a platform for power projection but also for dual usage of integration of nuclear and conventional capabilities. The PLAAF claims that the LRSB remains vulnerable at this critical juncture and, thus, there is a need to move from quantitative accumulation to qualitative change and from being a big force to a strong force.”11 Furthermore, it argues, “The new-generation LRSB will considerably improve China’s strategic attack capability and make the PLAAF a strategic air force in the true sense.”12The major lesson that China has conveyed through its policy of increasing LRSB flights is that the policy of the US to contain China within the first and second chains of islands is now a fatigued idea. China cannot be contained militarily by the US or its allies on land, sea and even air. The PLA Navy is already in the process of achieving power projection capabilities and now it is the turn of the PLAAF to be strengthened and converted into a “strategic air force” status. What the US and allies must do is develop the capability to mitigate the threat by developing systems and synergy among allies to ensure that any long range flights either by the H-6K or, in future, the H-20, remain vulnerable to ground, air and sea-based air defence systems. From an institutional perspective, the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) of China continues to remain the “core force for strategic deterrence”.13 The LRSB is not a replacement for the nuclear capable missile but will give options to China for using the air in addition to the land-based and sea-based nuclear and conventional missiles. Limitations of Current Long Range Bombers of ChinaThe concerns for China with regard to its LRSBs is that the current range limitations of PLAAF fighters would mean that the H-6Ks on trans-regional missions would not have fighters to defend them and would, therefore, “be easy targets for American, Japanese, and Taiwanese air defenders before they could get within range of Guam.”14 The range of the current fleet remains limited due to inadequate refuelling facilities in mid-air or bases on land. Another issue related with range is that even NARENDER KUMARCLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 189if refuelling is carried out, the surprise and stealth of the mission gets compromised because the refuelling aircraft may not be able to hide the radar signatures and, thus, will become an easy target for air defence forces. Moreover, China is yet to master the technology of stealth and, as a result, the US bases along the “first and second chain of islands” continue to act as deterrence for over the sea operations. Currently, the US has the Aegis and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD)missile defences in Guam and at its Japanese bases, which pose a threat to China’s fleet of missiles and LRSBs. The US has no established defence against a stealth bomber, which China will seek to exploit with the H-20.15 However, the H-6K fleet, in the absence of air defence and electronic warfare escort, remains vulnerable to the US air, ground and sea-based air defence. China does not have the maritime or carrier battle group support for long range bombers in terms of air defence in the open sea. China may have psychologically bounced the “first and second chains of islands” by flying over the sea, but to presume that it will be able to enforce AA/AD in the South China Sea and Western Pacific region is still a far cry. China is yet to develop it as a comprehensive system of systems that can deal with multiple challenges from the air, ground and sea, including kinetic and non-kinetic threats. The new aircraft of China will necessitate development of significant defensive capabilities, in particular with regard to the Find, Fix, Track, Target, Engage and Assess (F2T2EA) process.16 Moreover, the potential for the regional bomber to be employed in a deep, offensive counter-air role would likely necessitate the diversion of allied 5th generation aircraft from offensive operations to defend high-value assets.17 With the current available capabilities of the PLAAF, it is not possible for China to engage and divert the US stealth long range bombers and 5th generation aircraft, thus, employment of the H-6K or H-20 against the US and its allies may be fraught with risk in the absence of a credible air defence system that is able to deny penetration of US missiles and aircraft. CHINA’S LONG RANGE BOMBERS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE TO THE REGION190  CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019The PLAAF “does not currently have a nuclear mission”.18 The biggest capability gap in the LRSB is that it is incapable of penetrating through the air defence of the US and its allies along the first and second chains of island. Thus, these flights can at best be described as strategic signalling, training and dry rehearsals so that, in the future when the nuclear capable stealth long range bombers are introduced, the PLAAF is ready to operate them as part of the nuclear triad. Implications for IndiaThe new-generation LRSB will considerably improve China’s strategic attack capability and make the PLAAF a strategic air force in the true sense. China’s quest for the LRSB is not exclusively to break the encirclement/containment along the “first and second chains of islands” but also to bring the IOR and Australia within the range of the H-20. It will have security implications for India in the land, air and maritime domains. If deployed in mainland China, the range of the H-20 is sufficient to cover Japan, the Korean peninsula (if operating from Hainan), the South China Sea and the northern halves of Sumatra and Borneo plus the entirety of the Philippines; and from western or southern China, much of India and the Bay of Bengal.19 With the stated capabilities of the H-20, China will be in a position to extend its reach to all of India, the island territories including the Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands. The threat is not from the range but the stealth technology that is central to the development of the regional bomber (H-20) and it will employ many 5th generation fighter technologies that include an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and be capable of delivering precision-guided munitions.20 Considering the threat China’s LRSBs will pose to India by 2025, there is an urgent need to assess the strategic and operational implications, especially at a time when the Indian Air Force does not have credible surveillance and air defence capabilities to engage stealth bombers. The NARENDER KUMARCLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 191threat of the LRSBs is more in the strategic realm than in the operational or tactical domain. It will threaten India’s critical military and non-military assets on land, sea and island territories. India not only requires dissuasive capability by developing credible air defence against stealth technology but will also need LRSBs to strike back with equal intensity, should the situation so warrant. In any case, India requires the LRSBs to possess a credible nuclear triad and a system that is dual purpose (nuclear and conventional) and multi-role to perform the task of ground attack, anti-ship, air defence (air-to-air missiles) electronic warfare and airborne early warning long range radar. ConclusionChina is more focussed to make the Air Force a strategic force that has regional and intercontinental range. It gives China another option as far as nuclear triad is concerned, however, the PLARF remains the main-stay of China’s strategic deterrence. China is making formidable strides in logistical and technological advancements in building the LRSBs, however, it still lacks combat experience, whereas the B-52 long range bombers of the US has been in service since 1955. That could prove to be its greatest hindrance to implement a successful long-range bomber strategy. “Today, China’s military has an increasingly impressive high-tech arsenal, but its ability to use these weapons and equipment remains unclear. According to Timothy R. Heath, the Army (PLA) struggles under the legacy of an obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism, among other issues.”21 The editor-in-chief of the defence journal is sceptical about China’s abilities to produce a modern long-range stealth strike bomber in a short period, considering that it would require “a state-of-the-art structure and aerodynamic configuration as well as a high-performance turbofan engine”.22 There may be doubts about China in achieving technical capabilities, given the ambitious timelines to make the H-20 operational by 2025. However, CHINA’S LONG RANGE BOMBERS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE TO THE REGION192  CLAWS Journal l Summer 2019the reorganised People’s Libertion Army (PLA) is certainly becoming more professional and focussed in the approach to achieve operational efficiency. The H-6K flights over the Western Pacific should be seen in the light of testing conceptual and training aspects so that when these flights are undertaken to implement the AA/AD or ADIZ, the PLAAF is not found wanting. The development of the H-20 as the LRSB should not be seen only as a weapon system against the US—India is equally a potential target of this strategic weapon system. India can no longer afford to delay and defer building resilient air defence capabilities, keeping in mind the threat LRSBs will pose to our critical assets based on land, island territories and even carrier battle groups. The need for adding LRSBs in the Indian Air Force arsenal is imperative and undeniable. Notes1. James R. Holmes, “Island Chains Everywhere,” The Diplomat, February 16, 2011.2. “China’s H-6K: The ‘Old’ Bomber That Could ‘Sink’ the U.S. Navy”, TNI, The National Interest, May 21, 2018.3. Ibid.4. Zhao Lei, “PLA Air Force Commander Confirms New Strategic Bomber,” China Daily, September 2, 2016, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-09/02/content_26683883.htm. Accessed on April 5, 2019.5. “New Strategic Bomber to Make PLA Air Force a Strong Force,” China Military, February 17, 2017, http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2017-02/17/content_7491722.htm. Accessed on April 5, 2019.6. “H-20—New Chinese Strategic Bomber,” Global Security, https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/h-20.htm. Accessed on May 9, 2019.7. Sebastien Roblin, “Stealth Shocker: Is China Really Building 2 Stealth Bombers?,” The National Interest, March 14, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/stealth-shocker-china-really-building-2-stealth-bombers-47567. Accessed on May 9, 2019.8. Derek Grossman et al., “China’s Long Range Bomber Flights, Drivers and Implications,” RAND Corporation, 2018, p. vi.9. Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga et al., eds, “China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights over the South China Sea,” War on the Rocks, August 2, 2016.10. Ibid. 11. Michael S. Chase, “Nuclear Bombers Could Boost PLAAF Strategic Role, Create Credible Triad,” The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, July 6, 2017.NARENDER KUMARCLAWS Journal l Summer 2019 19312. Ibid.13. Ibid.14. Darien Cavanaugh, “China’s Long-Range Bomber Flights Pose New Threat to Regional Powers and U.S,” Offiziere.ch, January 05, 2019, https://www.offiziere.ch/?p=34922. Accessed on April 5, 2019.15. Alex Lockie, “China’s Mysterious H-20 Bomber has a Nuclear Mission, but that’s got Nothing on its Real Threat,” Business Insider, November 5, 2018.16. James Bosbotinis, “China’s Regional Bomber and its Implications,” Sir Richard William Foundation, March 17, 2019.17. Ibid.18. Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017 (CMPR 2017), May 15, 2017, https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF, p. 61,19. Bosbotinis, n. 16.20. Ibid.21. Cavanaugh, n. 14. 22. Franz-Stefan Gady, “China Wants to Develop a New Long-Range Strategic Bomber: Can China’s Aviation Industry Deliver?,” The Diplomat, July 13, 2015.CHINA’S LONG RANGE BOMBERS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE TO THE REGION

China\u27s Long Range Bombers a Strategic Challenge to the Region

IndraStra Global: E-Journals

April 15, 2019In India, Largest Elections on Earth Get Underwayindrastra.com/2019/04/India-Largest-Elections-on-Earth-Get-Underway-005-04-2019-0040.htmlBy Nava ThakuriaImage Attribute: A file photo of  a man casting his vote through electronic voting machines (EVM) /Source: WikipediaOften termed as the largest democracy on Earth, India has gone for national elections sinceApril 11, 2019, and the biggest electoral exercise through electronic voting machines (EVM) willcontinue till May 19. Over 900 million voters will participate in the seven-phase generalelections to elect 543 representatives to 17th Lok Sabha, the powerful lower house of IndianParliament in New Delhi.Conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI), world’s most powerful electoralinstitution, the unique experience for the human race will unveil the winner on May 23counting day who would rule the one billion-plus nation for next five years.After completion of its term in office, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led byBhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a fresh mandate from the electorate. The NDA nomineesin the polls are primarily facing candidates belonged to the opposition Congress-led United1/4Progressive Alliance (UPA). The third front, a loose coalition of some regional political partiesacross the country, named Maha Gatbandhan, is also expected to put challenges to bothNDA and UPA candidates in selective Parliamentary constituencies.In the last general elections, projected Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi did almosta magic that helped the nationalist party to win an absolute majority with 282 seats in theLok Sabha (the lower house of Indian Parliament). NDA’s total tally increased up to 336 (out ofthe  545, where two members are nominated) in the 2014 national polls. On the other hand, theoldest party (Congress) shrank to 44 seats in the house of people’s representatives.BJP’s aggression to the once disturbed northeastern region of the country simply routed theCongress from any government in eight provinces (commonly known as State). Till 2014, theCongress used to have province governments in Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur andArunachal Pradesh. Now all the States including Tripura and Nagaland are ruled by ether BJPor its allies.The region, surrounded by Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet (China), Myanmar and Bangladesh, sends 25members to the Lok Sabha, but this time BJP leadership has taken the share very seriously.BJP president Amit Shah claims that his saffron party along with allies will win over 20 seatsfrom the region. The Congress has not made any claim but maintained their candidates willdo fairly well in the forthcoming polls.Prime Minister Modi, the star poll-campaigner of BJP, keeps seeking votes for hisdevelopmental activities along with non-corrupt governance and security to the nation.Besides pledging for more roads, airports, and other infrastructures, he promised more jobsfor the youths. At the same time, Modi maintained that they would continue various welfareprograms like providing toilets, houses, cooking gas, crop insurance, loans for smallbusinesses and also electricity connections.On the other hand, the leadership of Congress party that ruled the populous south Asiancountry for over five decades since 1947 promised to make India a poverty-free nation by2030 with provisions of minimum income guarantee scheme, waving of peasant’s bank loanand creation of sustainable jobs.  He continues targeting PM Modi for failure in variousaspects including in realizing the saffron leader’s earlier promise to create 10 million jobsevery year for Indian nationals.The Congress resident Rahul Gandhi has drawn attention from the citizens with his promisethat if voted to power they would provide a minimum guaranteed income of Indian rupees72,000 per year to every poor family. Hong Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission(AHRC) also issued a statement praising Gandhi for his proposed initiative that wouldenhance the international mission for sustainable development goals by 2030.In the eastern region, the Congress is expecting electoral benefits out of the ruling party’smuch-debated citizenship amendment bill (CAB), which sparked massive reactions amongnortheastern ethnic groups. Most of the people in northeast India opposed the saffron plan2/4to welcome persecuted religious asylum seekers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, andAfghanistan, who had already entered the country before December 31, 2014.CAB was successfully passed in the Lok Sabha on January 8 and was soon scheduled forRajya Sabha, the upper house of Indian Parliament so that it could be sent to the President ofIndia for necessary endorsements. But it was not pushed forward by the Union (federal)government as the ruling party had no majority in the Council of States. Thus the initiative toamend the law lapsed with an embarrassment to the Hindu nationalist party.The socio-political scenario of the country had changed dramatically with the February 14Pulwama terror attack, where over 40 paramilitary soldiers lost their lives. Pakistan-basedIslamist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility for the assault, which sent amassive wave of pain & anger among millions of patriotic Indians.Public sentiments against JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar and his promoter the IslamicRepublic of Pakistan were fully materialized by Modi and the hardliner Prime Ministerlaunched a verbal war over Islamabad. His assertion was followed by sudden aerial attacks inPakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPP) locality on February26, where the Indian air-forces claimed to hit many JeM terror bases.Need not to mention that any major elections in northeast India were synonymous toviolence perpetrated by insurgents, who had been fighting the Centre (New Delhi) fordecades demanding self-rule to sovereignty. The separatist militant outfits even earlierdictated the people to avoid the electoral process as they asserted it as being a symbol ofsuppression by the colonial Indian forces. But the northeastern electorate valiantly defiedtheir diktat.Influential and dreaded armed groups like United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) made it ahabit to issue press statements threatening the electorate of dire consequences if theyprefer to cast their votes and later the same militants secretly supported poll-candidates oftheir choices. This time two Manipur based insurgent groups namely Zomi Re-unificationOrganization (ZRO) and Kuki National Organization (KNO) came out with covert supports tosaffron candidates.However, both factions of ULFA have shown reluctance in intervening over the polls. Whenthe pro-talk faction led by Arabindra Rajkhowa recently made it clear that they would not bea part of the electoral process, the other faction led by Paresh Barua maintained silence overtheir involvement. Rather Barua, while talking to local media from his secret sheltersomewhere in Myanmar-China border, disclosed that they did a pre-poll survey where hesaw BJP as a probable gainer.About the Author:Nava Thakuria is a journalist based in northeast India.3/4DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this insight piece are those of the author and do notnecessarily reflect the official policy or position of the IndraStra Global.  4/4

https://www.neliti.com/publications/327336/chinas-long-range-bombers-a-strategic-challenge-to-the-region

China's Long Range Bombers a Strategic Challenge to the Region

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Neliti

CLAWS Journal

IndraStra Global: E-Journals