How adaptive cruise control systems may increase congestion: An MFD perspective

Abstract

Det er tiltalende at tro, at adaptive fartpiloter (ACC), som er forløberen for autonome køresystemer, vil lede til mindre trængsel ved at muliggøre en mere effektiv kørsel. I papiret undersøger vi denne hypotese ved at sammenligne tidssikkerhedsintervallet for ACC-systemer (på tværs af bilmærker) med observerede tidsintervaller for menneskelige chauffører. Ved at samle tidssikkerhedsintervallet i et fundamentalt makroskopisk diagram (MFD) af en stor dansk motorvej i morgenmyldretiden, konkluderes det, at; i) menneskelige chauffører opretholder et markant lavere tidsinterval i sammenligning med det underforståede gennemsnitlige sikkerhedsinterval for ACC-aktiverede biler, og ii) det lavere tidsinterval er effektivt fra et MFD-perspektiv. Med ACC-teknologien som den er i dag, og ved at anvende standardindstillinger, vil øget brug af ACC sandsynligvis bidrage til mere trængsel. I papiret diskuteres konsekvenser samt mulige initiativer til at imødegå effekten.It is appealing to believe that adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems, the forerunner of autonomous driving systems, will provide congestion relief by allowing for more efficient driving. In the paper, we investigate this hypothesis by comparing the time safety gap of ACC systems (across manufactures) with the observed revealed safety gap of human drivers. By clustering the safety gap within a network macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) of a large Danish motorway in the morning peak, it is concluded that; i) human drivers maintain a significantly lower safety gap when compared to the implied average safety gap of ACC enabled cars, and ii) the lower safety gap is efficient from an MFD perspective. Hence, with the ACC technology state of today and by applying standard settings, increased use of ACC is likely to contribute to more congestion. In the paper, we discuss possible consequences and initiatives that might help mitigating the effect

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