Rainfall Nowcasting by Blending of Radar Data and Numerical Weather Prediction

Abstract

In order to improve conventional rainfall nowcasting, radar extrapolation and high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) were blended to get a 6-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) over the Yangtze River Delta region of China. Modifications and calibrations were done to both the extrapolation and NWP in order to get an integrated result from the two, which mainly included the extension for the extrapolation time and region, intensity and position calibration for the NWP, weighted blending of extrapolation and NWP based on scale and time, and a final real-time Z-R relation conversion. Forecast experiments were done, and results show that the blending technique could effectively extend forecast time compared with conventional radar extrapolation, meanwhile applying a positive calibration to the NWP. The overall CSI score of 0–6 h reflectivity forecast was better than either single forecast