Becker, Robert H.

London, Donna S.

Clemson University: TigerPrints

        D London and Bob B keTHE SELF PORTRAIT HOW ARE WE DOING IN SC? ~ Perception, Reality, and Implications onna London and Bob Becker The Jim Self Center on the Future Strom Thurmond Institute Clemson University Presented to Agency Directors Organization Columbia, SC April 7, 2008                                                              WHAT IS THE SELF PORTRAIT? • Series of surveys to capture the mood of SouthCarolinians in terms of factors affecting their day today lives and their future • Random phone survey of 825+ citizens 18 and olderconducted biannually• One time capture and over time • Jim Self Center on the Future and the SurveyResearch Lab in USC’s Institute for Public Service andPolicy Research.STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 2                                             WHY THE SELF PORTRAIT? • To expand on how we are how we arepersonally affected by surrounding change• To understand varying perspectives • To understand concerns, where needs aregoing unmet, where resources should betargeted • To shed light on how timing and externalfactors affect the citizen’s sense of well-being STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 3                    ---QUALITY OF LIFE How has the quality of life changed over the past five years?48% 46% 50% 60% Dec '06 Dec '07 28% 24% 28% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Improved Worse Same4/7/2008 4 STI/JSCF                 ---RIGHT OR WRONG TRACK? Is South Carolina headed on the right or the wrong track?66% 55% 50% 60% 70% Dec '06 Dec '07 24% 10% 34% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Right Wrong Don't Know 4/7/2008 5 STI/JSCF              BETTER OR WORSE? ---Will the next generation be better off in the next ten years? Same 5% Don’tKnow 9% Better 40% Worse 46% 4/7/2008 6 STI/JSCF ---B tWHAT ABOUT YOU? Will you be better off in the next ten years? Don’t Don’t KnowSame  KnowSame  7%8% 7%8% Worse 21% et er  Worse 21% Be ter  65%65% STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 7              ---MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING SC? Comparison of 3 surveys Civil Liberties Crime War Other Issues Nov-Dec '07 May-Jun '07 Nov-Dec '06 0% 10% 20% 30% Education Economy Health Care Environment Growth and Development Population Government4/7/2008 8 STI/JSCF                   ---THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Will the next generation be able to compete in theglobal economy? 56% 54% 40% 50% 60% Dec '06 Dec '07 38% 6% 39% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% Agree Disagree Don’t Know4/7/2008 9 STI/JSCF                            Di i fi d---EDUCATION QUALITY Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of educationSC students receive in grades K – 12?CompletelySatisfied10% CompletelyDon’tKnow7% Somewhat Satisfied37% SomewhatDissatisfied31% ssat s e16% 4/7/2008 10 STI/JSCF                         ---EDUCATION SPENDING Do you think spending on education should be decreased, keptthe same, or increased—even if it means raising taxes?Decrease 7% Don’t Know6% Keep Same 27% Increase60% 4/7/2008 11 STI/JSCF                    HEALTHCARE SYSTEM ---What is your impression of the SC healthcare system? WorksPretty WellDon’tKnow9% 20% NeedsSomeChange50% CompletelyRebuild21% 4/7/2008 12 STI/JSCF                    8%---HEALTHCARE ISSUES What is the most important healthcare issue? PublicHealthOther5% HealthProfess-ionals2% Access toCare 2% Ability toAfford 69% Elderly,Children14%  4/7/2008 13 STI/JSCF                            ---HEALTHCARE FUNDING Would you favor or oppose an increase in the state cigarette tax of55 cents per pack to improve the healthcare system? Other4% Don’tKnow3% 4/7/2008 Favor72% Oppose21% 14 STI/JSCF                        ---POPULATION GROWTH How important is it for local governments in SC to address illegalimmigration in their communities? Not TooImp. 5% Not At All 3% Don’tKnow2% Very Im-portant 71% Some-what 18% 4/7/2008 15 STI/JSCF  BERKELEY – CHARLESTON – DORCHESTER URBAN GROWTH MODEL 4/7/2008 16 STI/JSCF Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Urban Growth I 26 Charleston 1994 -Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Urban Growth I 26 Charleston 2015 4/7/2008 18 STI/JSCF  -Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Urban Growth I 26 Charleston 2030 4/7/2008 19 STI/JSCF  - UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA URBAN GROWTH MODEL 4/7/2008 20 STI/JSCF      Upstate South Carolina Urban Growth Greenville County 1990 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 222,745 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 21 STI/JSCF      Upstate South Carolina Urban Growth Greenville County 2000 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 576,336 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 22 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2005 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 720,280 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 23 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2010 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 881,919 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 24 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2015 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 1,043,692 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 25 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2020 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 1,205,440 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 26 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2025 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 1,367,441 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 27 STI/JSCF       Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2030 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 1,522,891 acres Clemson Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 28 STI/JSCF         Upstate South Carolina Predicted Urban Growth Greenville County 2000 - 2030 Picken  Greenville County Spartanburg Spartanburg County 576,336 acres -Clemson 1,522,891 acres Abbeville County Ander on County Lauren  County Greenwood County Newberry County Newberry Anderson Greenwood 4/7/2008 29 STI/JSCF                           ower---GROWTH PREFERENCE Would you prefer a higher rate of growth, a lower rate of growth,or to stay about the same level as there is now? Higher 23% L Aboutthe Same 47%  30% 4/7/2008 30 STI/JSCF                   N llGOVERNMENT RESPONSE ---How should state and local governments deal with growth? Let ItOccurDon'tKnow 8% ManageWhereGrowthOccurs 54% PromoteMoreGrowth 26% atura y 12% 4/7/2008 31 STI/JSCF                       MANAGING GROWTH ---What should state and local government do to manage growth? Environ-ment 8% All Others 5% Planning &Land UseMgmt. 41% Comm. &EconomicDevelop-ment 21% MoreServices &Infra-structure 13% PopulationControl 12% 4/7/2008 32 STI/JSCF                       ---PROMOTING GROWTH What should state and local government do to promote growth? MoreServices &Infra-structure 7% PopulationControl 4% All Others 4% Comm. &EconomicDevelop-ment 65% Planning &Land UseMgmt. 20% 4/7/2008 33 STI/JSCF                                               B ild &---Most byMost byCurrentResidents Don'tKnow 6% All byCurrentResidents 2% u ersDevelopers 30% All byBuilders &Developers 29% Half byCurrentResidents,Half byBuilders &Developers 27% 6% PAYING FOR INFRASTRUCTURE Increasing population will require more infrastructure such as roads, schools,and water. How do you think this infrastructure should be paid for? STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 34                            ---TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Which of the following statements comes closest to expressingyour overall view of SC’s transportation system?WorksPrettyCom-pletelyDon’tKnow4% 4/7/2008 35 STI/JSCF Well24% SomeChangeNeeded51% Rebuild21%                         ---TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS What is the most important thing that can be done to improvetransportation in SC?RegulateTraffic &System RailwaySystem 3% Bridges 2% Highways& Roads 54% PublicTransport -ation 21% AllOthers 11% 9% 4/7/2008 36 STI/JSCF                                    ---TRANSPORTATION FUNDING Should funding for transportation be reduced, kept about the same as it isnow, or increased even if this means raising taxes or cutting services? KeepReduceSome 6% Reduce aLot 3% Don'tKnow 9% Aboutthe Same 46% IncreaseSome 27% Increasea Lot 9% 4/7/2008 37 STI/JSCF                             ---STATE GAS TAX Would you oppose an increase in the state gas tax of 5 cents per gallon ifthese funds were used to improve the state's transportation system?Favor Other 2% Don'tKnow 3% 28% Oppose 66% 4/7/2008 38 STI/JSCF               ---WATER ISSUES Does water quality and quantity affect economic growth? A GreatDeal Not at All Don'tKnow 8% 32% Some-what 32% NotMuch 17% 11% 4/7/2008 39 STI/JSCF                      os o---TRUST How much of the time do you think you can trust the stategovernment? JustAboutAlways 4% M t fDon'tKnow 1% Never 9% Time 31% Some ofTime 55% 4/7/2008 40 STI/JSCF                       • I l d iOBSERVATIONS • Sense of satisfaction out of kilter with state rankings • Variability among demographic sectors  nterrelated issues • Comparison over time and to media events during survey period 4/7/2008 41 STI/JSCF                                oppor un y o s en ana yze an responOBSERVATIONS, CONT. • Once results become public, they may become contagious • Positive and negative responses offer t it t li t l d dt it  t  li t , l , d d • Status quo works if systems are in place • Enhance resources and be vigilant STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 42    THE S.C. – U.S. INCOME GAP WITH SOME MIGRATION TRENDS 4/7/2008 43 STI/JSCF SC MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME (1999) $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $41,994 $33,597 $31,589 $34,085 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 US SC I 95 Counties Non I 95 Counties 4/7/2008 44 STI/JSCF      - -             SC INCOME AS A SHARE OF US INCOME 1990 & 2000, BY INCOME PERCENTILE Income Percentile South Carolina United States SC % of US 1989 1999 1989 1999 1989 1999 10th $7,264 $8,439 $8,694 $10,365 83.5% 81.4% 90th $88,828 $94,406 $99,642 $114,841 89.1% 82.2% 50th $35,512 $37,511 $40,523 $42,728 87.6% 87.8% Source: US Census, Census Scope 2004 STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 45 SC INCOME BY INCOME GROUP (SHARE OF US AVERAGE - NOT DISCOUNTED) 86% 88% 90% 87.6% 89.1% 87.8% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 10th percentile 50th percentile 90th percentile 83.5% 81.4% 82.2% 4/7/2008 46 STI/JSCF                       MEDIAN ANNUAL EARNINGS BY DEGREE 30 TO 64 YEAR-OLDS (2000) AS/AA BS/BA Grad/Prof $30,000 $39,000 $45,000 $30,000 $40,000 $57,333 No Diploma HS Diploma Some College $18,500 $24,000 $25,100  $17,700 $24,000 $28,000 US SC $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 STI/JSCF Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files. 4/7/2008 47         HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION SC VS. US (NOT DISCOUNTED) 8% 10% 12% holds SC US 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent of Househ Annual Household Income 4/7/2008 48 STI/JSCF    SC PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME 2000 (AS A DISCOUNTED PERCENTAGE OF US PER CAPITA INCOME) STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 49       25 TO 64 YEAR-OLDS WITH AT LEAST A B.S./B.A. DEGREE (% OF POP) STI/JSCF Source: US Census Bureau, Census 20004/7/2008 50                                                                                                 The two strongest contributors were theeducation related variables.• The closer ratio of South Carolina per capita income toU.S. per capita income was significantly explained by thepercent of county population over 25 with at least a BSdegree (probability .002). • The wider the ratio of South Carolina per capita incometo U.S. per capita income was significantly explained by thepercent of county population over 25 without a high schooldiploma (probability .006). These two variables explained almost 79% of thedifference between the ratio of South Carolina percapita income to U.S. per capita income. STI/JSCF 4/7/2008 51 STATE PER CAPITA INCOME (1999) $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 MSWVARLA MTNM SDOKND ID KYUTALSCWYTNMENETX IAMO AZNC IN KSVTPAOROHGAWIFL RI STI/JSCF NVMICAWAMN DENYNHVACOMDMA NJCT 4/7/2008 52 ILDISCOUNTED STATE PER CAPITA INCOME (1999) $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 SDMSNDWV LA ARMTNM UTMENE ID IA OKMO KYVTALIN RIKSSCWIPAOHWYTNORMINCNYAZ IL STI/JSCF MN TXNHGANVCAMAWA FL DECO NJVA CTMD 4/7/2008 53 IL70% COLLEGE-GOING RATES – HS TO COLLEGE % OF RECENT HS GRADUATES (2002) 60% 59% 50% 40% 30% 40% 33% 24% 20% 10% 0% NDMA NJIA NECTSD PA RIMTKSNHWIIN MENYDEMIWYMDMNVAUSOHVTWVARCOMONC HIID KYNM OKWA STI/JSCF ALLA CAMSUTSCTN ORGA TXAZ FL NVAK 4/7/2008 54 SIX YEAR GRADUATION RATES % BS/BA STUDENTS GRADUATING (2002) 70% 65% 60% 54% 50% 50% 40% 25% 30% 20% 10% 0% RIMA CT IA NHPAWACADEVTNJVAMENC ILMDMISCWIFLINMNNYUTMOOHORWYUSAZ HICO KSTN ALTX STI/JSCF MSNEID NDSDGA KYMTWVNVOKNM ARLAAK 4/7/2008 Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education 55            -----NET MIGRATION OF STUDENTS 10,289 2,759 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 MA FL NCPAUT IN AZ RIVA IA ALOHTNMOCO SCMSCAGAWIDEVTWVOKND KSLA KY ID ORNHARNYNEWYSDTXMIMTNVNM HIAKMEMNWACTMD IL NJ -20,128 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 M O M C M G W O N O N W M N N M M W M STI/JSCF Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education4/7/2008 56 34,642 17,643 16,902 13,488             - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- ---,NET MIGRATION OF RESIDENTS BS/BA OR HIGHER (1995-2000) 191,070 100 000 150,000 200,000 73,509 49,42144,21643,83740,06035,30732,56430,36329,60328,99827,21625,87524,470 14,55713,66610,9469,7523,2952,3371,190960645 3034986611,3851,5032,8992,9963,5103,5793,8544,4474,5914,9665,5306,6706,9036,9347,2418,4209,2469,6879,76310,534CaliforniaTexasGeorgiaNew IllinoisFloridaColoradoVirginiaMassachusettsWashingtonNorth New MarylandArizonaOregonMinnesotaTennesseeNevadaHawaiiAlaskaSouth CarolinaDelawareConnecticut MissouriIdahoKentuckyNew MexicoWyomingKansas New HampshireRhode IslandVermontArkansasNebraskaSouth DakotaMaineMontanaMississippiNorth DakotaOklahomaWest VirginiaLouisianaAlabamaUtahMichiganOhioWisconsinIowaIndianaPennsylvania 50,000 0 Jersey Carolina York STI/JSCF 50,000 4/7/2008 57 ILNEW ECONOMY INDEX PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE (2002) 100 90 90 80 70 60.3 60 51.1 50 40.7 40 30 20 10 STI/JSCF 0 4/7/2008 58 MA WA CA CO MD NJ CT VA DE NY OR UT MN TX NH AZ FL PA ID RI US GA MI MO ME NC NM VT KS OH AK NV NE OK HI IN MT IA TN WI SC KY SD ND LA WY AL AR MS WV                                                               I /E—-- -AK NM ID FL OH NC MI MO VT KS NE ME PA RI OR MD IL VA UT NY DE MN CT NH NJ MA AR TN OK LA MS HI KY AL SC WV MT IN SD WI ND IA WY Low Production, Exporter of Capital High Production, Exporter of Capital 0 STATES’ A BILITY TO PRODUCE GRADUATES VS. ABILITY TO KEEP AND ATTRACT GRADUATES 3 Low Production, Importer of Capital High Production, Importer of Capital CA State New Economy Index Scores (2002) Top Tier NV Middle Tier Low Tier 2 GA TX AZ CO WA mport xportRatio of 22 to29 Year Oldswith a CollegeDegree 1 STI/JSCF Student Pipeline (Of 100 9th Graders the Number Graduating from High School on time, Going Directly to College,4/7/2008 59 Returning Their Second Year, and Completing College within 150 Percent of Degree Time) 7.5 15 22.5 30 0                                            STRATEGY FOR COMPETITIVE IMPROVEMENT: ATTRACT HUMAN CAPITAL • Centers for Higher Ed as magnets forenhancing residential educational achievement• Each out of state student who remains in SCtransfers at least $125,000 net investment • Tax credit to encourage out of state studentsto become SC residents would only cost $25,000apieceSTI/JSCF 4/7/2008 60         The Strom Thurmond Institute of Government and Public Affairs 4/7/2008 61 STI/JSCF 

The self portrait: How are we doing in South Carolina? Perception, reality, and implications, 2008 April 7

https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1280&amp;context=sti_pubs

The self portrait: How are we doing in South Carolina? Perception, reality, and implications, 2008 April 7

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