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Chapman University Chapman University Digital Commons Anderson Center Press Releases A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research 2-6-2014 California Leading Employment Indicator Suggests a Stronger Job Market Anderson Center for Economic Research Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/anderson_center_press_releases Recommended Citation Anderson Center for Economic Research, "California Leading Employment Indicator Suggests a Stronger Job Market" (2014). Anderson Center Press Releases. 39. https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/anderson_center_press_releases/39 This Press Release is brought to you for free and open access by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Anderson Center Press Releases by an authorized administrator of Chapman University Digital Commons. For more information, please contact laughtin@chapman.edu.   A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research            California Leading Employment Indicator Suggests a Stronger Job Market  ORANGE, CA—The California Index of Leading Employment Indicator increased by nearly six points from a reading of 122.5 in the fourth quarter of 2013 to a reading of 128.4 in the first quarter of 2014.  The index level above the critical value of 100 suggests positive job growth.  Additionally, the uptick in the index indicates that the pace of job creation should pick-up steam in the first quarter of 2014.   For Release: February 6, 2014  Contact: Esmael Adibi,  Director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at (714) 997-6693. Chapman University rArgyros School of Business and Economics California Index of Leading Employment Indicator February 6, 2014                                                                                                                                         Page 2    The California Index of Leading Employment Indicator is comprised of variables found to have a significant influence on California’s payroll employment growth.  These variables include movements in the lagged values of real GDP, real exports, the S&P 500 and California’s total construction spending.  A weighted average of changes in these variables, based on their relative importance in explaining state employment growth, is used in constructing the index. As shown in the following figure, the index of leading employment indicator is strongly correlated to California’s payroll employment growth.     All four components of the indicator series are positive and show significant increase compared to the previous quarter.   Year-over-year real GDP growth rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 was higher than the revised 2.0 percent increase in the third quarter of 2013.  Year-over-year, the S&P 500 increased 29.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, nearly 13 points higher than the third quarter growth of 16.7.  Year-over-year, real exports grew by 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a revised growth rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2013.   Year-over-year, percentage change in construction spending, which is derived from six-quarter lagged real values of total building permit valuation, increased by 27.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 up from the revised third quarter increase of 23.0 percent.         ABOUT THE ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research (ACER) was established in 1979 to provide data, facilities and support in order to encourage the faculty and students at Chapman University to engage in economic and business research of high quality, and to disseminate the results of this research to the community.    ANNUAL SCHEDULE OF CONFERENCES AND PRESS RELEASES JANUARY   Economic Forecast Conferences for the Inland Empire  California Purchasing Managers Survey     FEBRUARY   California Leading Employment Indicator     MARCH   California Consumer Sentiment Survey     APRIL   California Purchasing Managers Survey     MAY   California Leading Employment Indicator     JUNE   Economic Forecast Update Conference for the U.S., California and Orange County  California Consumer Sentiment Survey     JULY   California Purchasing Managers Survey     AUGUST   California Leading Employment Indicator     SEPTEMBER   California Consumer Sentiment Survey     OCTOBER   California Purchasing Managers Survey     NOVEMBER   California Leading Employment Indicator  Economic Forecast Conference for the U.S., California and Orange  County     DECEMBER   California Consumer Sentiment Survey  

California Leading Employment Indicator Suggests a Stronger Job Market

https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1038&context=anderson_center_press_releases

California Leading Employment Indicator Suggests a Stronger Job Market

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