The Non-Consensus 1992 Consensus

Abstract

The 1992 Consensus is perhaps the most crucial political term for cross-strait relations. Surveys show that the public consistently supports it in Taiwan. Despite the alleged broad support, there has not been an academic study examining if Taiwanese people understand the content of the 1992 Consensus. Such an inquiry is important as the administration in Taiwan has yet accepted the Consensus in its interactions with Beijing. A nearly representative online survey was conducted in July 2018, and 1001 Taiwanese respondents were recruited to choose among different “definitions” of the 1992 Consensus. Results show that only one-third of the respondents chose the version that Kuomintang agreed on, while another one-third misperceived the 1992 Consensus as a country-to-country agreement. Taiwanese people might have supported the Consensus for content that it is not. We then discuss the policy implications of our study for both China and Taiwan and provide future research orientations