An Arima-model-based approach with hazard area for the probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repositiory at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Usa
An interesting extension of advanced time-series analysis techniques is introduced into the domain of volcanological data exploration. A new and innovative use of the well-known ARIMA method for modeling the recurrence rate of volcanism ranging from simple Poissonian volcanoes to those showing cyclic trends is presented. Specifically, we propose a new tool to fingerprint the eruptive behavior of a volcano, which also links some modeling tools of two of the most developed areas in the literature of statistics: stochastic processes and time series. Valuable modeling and computing insights are discussed using a data set from the volcanic database at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for an underground geologic repository of high-level radioactive waste in the USA
