Understanding and measuring the complex relationship between natural disasters and violence against children

Abstract

Background:Violence against children is thought to increase after natural disasters, but evidence is limited. Methodological questions of how to measure possible associations are similarly unanswered. This thesis addresses these gaps by analyzing the relationship between natural disasters and violence against children, with emphasis on the 2010 Haitian earthquake,and by advancing design-based approaches for inference. Methods:The thesis is comprised of four related studies: (i) a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between natural disasters and violence against children; (ii) a systematic review of pathways to violence; (iii) a matched-pairs analysis of violence against girls and boys after internal displacement from the 2010 Haitian earthquake; and (iv) a simulation comparing bias reduction properties and accuracy of matching designs,with sexual violence against girls displaced to a camp as the motivating example. The first two components synthesize background literature, the third component is empirical, and the fourth is methodological. Results: Themeta-analysis found no clear association or directional effect, albeit with a limited number of studies that exhibited methodological weaknesses. Further systematic review identified five pathways to violence. In delving into one aspect of exposure, internal displacement from the 2010 Haitian earthquake was not associated with long-term violence. Sensitivity analysis, however, indicated that sexual violence against girls and physical violence perpetrated by authority figures against boys were sensitive to Unobserved covariates. Full matching incorporating an instrumental variable can mitigate measured and unmeasured biases to increase the accuracy of inference. Conclusion:This thesis begins to elucidate and quantify the relationship between natural disasters and violence against children. The findings identify gaps in knowledge and pathways to violence for future study. Additional high-quality research is needed to unpack the complex relationship. The methods piloted in this thesis present promising tools, particularly after rapid-onset natural disasters and in resource scarce settings

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