Topological strings on Calabi--Yau manifolds are known to undergo phase
transitions at small distances. We study this issue in the case of perturbative
topological strings on local Calabi--Yau threefolds given by a bundle over a
two-sphere. This theory can be regarded as a q--deformation of Hurwitz theory,
and it has a conjectural nonperturbative description in terms of q--deformed 2d
Yang--Mills theory. We solve the planar model and find a phase transition at
small radius in the universality class of 2d gravity. We give strong evidence
that there is a double--scaled theory at the critical point whose all genus
free energy is governed by the Painlev\'e I equation. We compare the critical
behavior of the perturbative theory to the critical behavior of its
nonperturbative description, which belongs to the universality class of 2d
supergravity. We also give evidence for a new open/closed duality relating
these Calabi--Yau backgrounds to open strings with framing.Comment: 49 pages, 3 eps figures; section added on non-perturbative proposal
and 2d gravity; minor typos correcte