Hodge, Bri Mathias

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Engineering Conferences International

Engineering Conferences InternationalECI Digital ArchivesModeling, Simulation, And Optimization for the21st Century Electric Power Grid ProceedingsFall 10-23-2012Characterizing and Modeling Wind Power ForecastErrors from Operational Systems for Use in WindIntegration Planning StudiesBri Mathias HodgeNRELFollow this and additional works at: http://dc.engconfintl.org/power_gridPart of the Electrical and Computer Engineering CommonsThis Conference Proceeding is brought to you for free and open access by the Proceedings at ECI Digital Archives. It has been accepted for inclusion inModeling, Simulation, And Optimization for the 21st Century Electric Power Grid by an authorized administrator of ECI Digital Archives. For moreinformation, please contact franco@bepress.com.Recommended CitationBri Mathias Hodge, "Characterizing and Modeling Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems for Use in Wind IntegrationPlanning Studies" in "Modeling, Simulation, And Optimization for the 21st Century Electric Power Grid", M. Petri, Argonne NationalLaboratory; P. Myrda, Electric Power Research Institute Eds, ECI Symposium Series, (2013). http://dc.engconfintl.org/power_grid/19Characterizing and Modeling WindPower Forecast Errors fromOperational Systems for use inWind Integration Planning StudiesNREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.Modeling, Simulation, and Optimization for the 21st Century Electric Power GridBri-Mathias HodgeOctober 23, 2012Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards2Renewable Generation Integration Background3Forecast Error Characterization and ModelingStatistical Background −=3σµγ XE• Skewness – 3rdStatistical Moment544 )(σεκE=• Kurtosis – 4thStatistical MomentData Utilized• ERCOT data• Day-ahead forecasts• Hourly power output• 13 months of data• Forecasts made at 16:00 the day prior • ~ 9,000 MW wind capacity• CAISO data• Day-ahead forecastsHourly power outputPix 190966•• 12 months of data• ~ 940 MW wind capacity• Xcel Energy data• Forecasts produced every 15 minutes for the next 72 hours• Hourly power output• 3 months of data• Single wind plant ~ 300 MW capacityERCOT Day-Ahead Histogramμ = -0.012σ = 0.119γ = -0.062κ = 1.0307ERCOT Day-Ahead Normal Q-Q Plot8National Renewable Energy Laboratory                                                                                         CAISO Day-Ahead Normal Q-Q Plot9Xcel Plant 1-Hour Normal Q-Q Plot10Xcel Hour-Ahead Persistence ComparisonPersistence Model Operational Model11γ = -0.51; κ = 5.97 γ = -0.01; κ = 17.62Modeling CAISO Day-Ahead Wind Forecasting Errorsμ = -0.004σ = 0.130γ = -0.393κ = 1.50312Cumulative Distribution Plot of CAISO Wind Errors13Modeling ERCOT Wind Forecast Errorsμ = -0.012σ = 0.119γ = -0.062κ = 1.03014ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution1515ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution1616Application to the WWSIS 2Western Wind and Solar Integration Study1818WWSIS Phase 2Thermal Unit Cycling Emissions Analysis1919Source: Steve Lefton, Intertek APTECH, with permission.Additional start-up emissionsProduction Cost Modeling – Balancing Areas2020Comparison of Operational and WWSIS Forecasts - CAISOHistogram of WWSIS Forecast Errors for CAISO4567WWSIS 1 CAISO errors - 960 MWHistogram of Actual Forecast Errors from CAISO456Operational CAISO errors - ~ 950 MW2121Forecast Error Normalized by CapacityDensity-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.001234Forecast Error Normalized by CapacityDensity-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.00123Mean = 0.044; Standard deviation = 0.222Skewness = -0.061; Kurtosis = 1.680Mean = -0.004; Standard deviation = 0.130Skewness = -0.393; Kurtosis = 1.503Mapping Forecast ErrorsWWSIS Forecast Errors Model Production Forecast Errors95%222295%Normalized Forecast Error Normalized Forecast Error-1                           0                              1 -1                                 0                              1Overview of Forecast Error Correction Procedure23Forecast Error Correction Procedure ResultsOriginal Forecasts Updated Forecasts24AcknowledgementsPIX  14961PIX  11188• David Maggio – ERCOT• James Blatchford - CAISO• Keith Parks – Xcel Energy• Anthony Florita• Michael Milligan• Debra Lew• Yih-huei Wan•Greg Brinkman25Questions?PIX  16105PIX  1773126

Characterizing and Modeling Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems for Use in Wind Integration Planning Studies

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Characterizing and Modeling Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems for Use in Wind Integration Planning Studies

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