A multi-factor model for range estimation in electric vehicles

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are well-known for their challenges related to trip planning and energy consumption estimation. Range anxiety is currently a barrier to the adoption of EVs. One of the issues influencing range anxiety is the inaccuracy of the remaining driving range (RDR) estimate in on-board displays. RDR displays are important as they can help drivers with trip planning. The RDR is a parameter that changes under environmental and behavioural conditions. Several factors (for example, weather, and traffic) can influence the energy consumption of an EV that are not considered during the RDR estimation in traditional on-board computers or third-party applications, such as navigation or mapping applications. The need for accurate RDR estimation is growing, since this can reduce the range anxiety of drivers. One way of overcoming range anxiety is to provide trip planning applications that provide accurate estimations of the RDR, based on various factors, and which adapt to the users’ driving behaviour. Existing models used for estimating the RDR are often simplified, and do not consider all the factors that can influence it. Collecting data for each factor also presents several challenges. Powerful computing resources are required to collect, transform, and analyse the disparate datasets that are required for each factor. The aim of this research was to design a Multi-factor Model for range estimation in EVs. Five main factors that influence the energy consumption of EVs were identified from literature, namely, Route and Terrain, Driving Behaviour, Weather and Environment, Vehicle Modelling, and Battery Modelling. These factors were used throughout this research to guide the data collection and analysis processes. A Multi-factor Model was proposed based on four main components that collect, process, analyse, and visualise data from available data sources to produce estimates relating to trip planning. A proof-of-concept RDR system was developed and evaluated in field experiments, to demonstrate that the Multi-factor Model addresses the main aim of this research. The experiments were performed to collect data for each of the five factors, and to analyse their impact on energy consumption. Several machine learning techniques were used, and evaluated, for accuracy in estimating the energy consumption, from which the RDR can be derived, for a specified trip. A case study was conducted with an electric mobility programme (uYilo) in Port Elizabeth, South Africa (SA). The case study was used to investigate whether the available resources at uYilo were sufficient to provide data for each of the five factors. Several challenges were noted during the data collection. These were shortages of software applications, a lack of quality data, technical interoperability and data access between the data collection instruments and systems. Data access was a problem in some cases, since proprietary systems restrict access to external developers. The theoretical contribution of this research is a list of factors that influence RDR and a classification of machine learning techniques that can be used to estimate the RDR. The practical contributions of this research include a database of EV trips, proof-of-concept RDR estimation system, and a deployed machine learning model that can be accessed by researchers and EV practitioners. Four research papers were published and presented at local and international conferences. In addition, one conference paper was published in an accredited journal: NextComp 2017 (Appendix C), Conference Paper, Pointe aux Piments (Mauritius); SATNAC 2017 (Appendix F), Conference Paper, Barcelona (Spain); GITMA 2018 (Appendix B), Conference Paper, Mexico City (Mexico); SATNAC 2018 (Appendix G), Conference Paper, George (South Africa), and IFIP World Computer Congress 2018 (Appendix E), Journal Article