A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION TO THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) PHENOMENA ON THE CLIMATE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA
Abstract Trinidad and Tobago like most other small developing island states is quite vulnerable to changes in Climate and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Climate changes can affect the rainfall regimes, air temperature, soil moisture budgets, water resources and arable land usage. While changes in air and sea surface temperature can adversely affect coral reefs, mangroves, sea grass bed communities and fishery populations that depend on them for habitat and breeding grounds. Analysis of the temporal and spatial changes of SST over the years is an important way of understanding the present variability in the climate. This will then allow for an improved assessment of the susceptibility, vulnerability and risk that both humans and natural ecosystems may face because of the changes in the coupling interaction of the various components of the Earth's environmental system. However, decision-making, management and developing environmental policies in this regard is seriously compromised due information poverty, i.e. the lack of data of effective and reliable information base. This paper advances a methodology to endure information poverty and to obtain and analyse the SST patterns utilising it as a proxy for determining the climate variability of Trinidad and Tobago. The methodology is based on obtaining, using and analysing available remotely sensed SST from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) via the Internet. As well as using available rainfall data. In the case of Trinidad and Tobago, the SST and rainfall data was obtained for the last 16 years. Mean monthly values of SST and rainfall for the period 1986-1999 were then derived. The results indicate that variability in the climate is occurring. Furthermore, it shows that during the El Niño years 1986-87 and 1997-98, the SST were at a maximum while the rainfall fell to minimum. The preliminary results indicated the possibility of developing statistical associations between SST and land precipitation as well as the association between the SST-land precipitation pattern and external events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These ideas in turn can lead to investigating the association between the variability in SST and land precipitation on water resources and land use patterns that might lead to the possible prediction of the land precipitation patterns based on SST analysis
