A presentation highlighting how strategic energy analysis can affect technologies, policies, and markets for clean energy solutions. This includes an overview of some of NREL\u27s models and tools as well as results from laboratory analysis

Arent, Douglas J.

A presentation highlighting how strategic energy analysis can affect technologies, policies, and markets for clean energy solutions. This includes an overview of some of NREL's models and tools as well as results from laboratory analysis

Arent, D.

UNT Digital Library

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.NREL  Planning & AnalysisNREL Industry Growth ForumDr. Douglas  J. ArentDirector,  Analysis CenterNovember 2009 Denver, CONREL/PR-6A2-47122Insights and Opportunities: Technologies, Policies, and Markets for Clean Energy Solutions Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryIntegrated technical and economic analyses that advance the understanding of the value of technology in the context of dynamic global, national, and local markets, policies, energy resources and loads, and infrastructure.Strategic Energy AnalysisAnalyze system performance and technology interfaces in the context of the overall systemSystemAssess resource availability and characteristicsResourceAnalyze technology and component performance, cost, and other attributesTechnology/ComponentAnalyze benefits and impacts of programs, portfolios, and policy optionsEnergy-Economic Market CharacterizationInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryDriving Innovation In Energy AnalysisUncertaintyTimeHighly CertainNOWSite SpecificHighly UNCertainDecades to MillenniaNational to GlobalInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryOpenPV – PV Market InformationInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryIMBY – In My Back YardRooftop PV or Small Wind SystemFor Feasibility AnalysisInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratorySegmentation and Geospatial InsightsInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPolicy analysis example: PV grid-parity analysis• Analysis for 1000 largest utilities in the U.S.• Currently PV is only attractive where there is a combination of high electricity prices and incentives.2007 residential PV and electricity price differences with existing incentivesInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory• Attractive in about 250 of 1,000 largest utilities, which provide ~37% of U.S. residential electricity sales.• 85% of sales (in nearly 870 utilities) are projected to have a price difference of less than 5 ¢/kWh.2015 residential without incentives and moderateincrease in electricity pricesPolicy analysis example: PV grid-parity analysis, 2015Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPolicy analysis example: PV grid-parity analysis; Alternative Scenario• Attractive in about 450 of 1,000 largest utilities, which provide ~50% of U.S. residential electricity sales. • 91% of sales (in nearly 950 utilities) are projected to have a price difference of less than 5 ¢/kWh.2015 residential without incentives and aggressive increase in electricity pricesInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryResultsInputsSAMComponent ParametersFinancial AssumptionsFinancial Metrics: LCOE, IRR, NPV, Payback, etc.Weather DataCostsValue Differentiation:Systems and LCOE Example: Solar Advisor ModelIncentivesUtility Rate StructureHourly SimulationFinancial ModelSensitivity AnalysisDetail:Hourly Energy Flows, Cash FlowPerformance Metrics:Capacity Factor, Annual Output11Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratorySample Outputs12Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryLoad RequirementsInitial CapacityLoad Growth ForecastTechnology Cost/ Performance ForecastsFuel Price ForecastsState/Federal Rules/IncentivesFinancing AssumptionsSystem RequirementsRegion DefinitionsTime-slice DefinitionsFuel Demand ForecastsElectricity Price ForecastsResource DataInstalled CapacityFuel PricesTechnology Cost/ Performance DataWind Variability ParametersNew Generating CapacityDispatchTransmission DataNew Transmission CapacityElectricity PriceFuel UsageTransmission RequirementsReEDS OptimizationGeospatial Energy-Economics: Systems Opportunities Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryReEDS RegionsInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryWind Resource in ReEDSInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryWind Potential (8-12% Losses)30-36% Capacity Factor:  100 – 42 GW36-41% Capacity Factor:   2 – 0 GWTotal: 102 – 42 GWWind Potential (8-12% Losses)30-36% Capacity Factor:  123 – 161 GW36-41% Capacity Factor:   99 – 37 GW42-46% Capacity Factor:  1 – 0 GWTotal: 223 – 198 GWInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryEvolution of Electric Generation under Carbon ConstraintInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPlug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Modeling“The Grid”LoadsReserve MarginsAncillary ServicesInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPHEVs* Can Increase Wind Penetration 01002003004005002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050GWBase CasePHEV-20PHEV-60* Assumes 50% PHEV-V2G penetration by 2050Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryFederal Stimulus Impact on Renewables20Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryFeed-in Tariffs in the U.S.One state with enacted FIT legislation based on avoided cost (CA)One state with enacted FIT legislation based on cost of generation (VT)Three states with enacted utility-based FITs (OR, WA, WI)Seven states (incl. 4 munis) with proposed RE cost-based FIT legislationSource: NREL June 2009Gainesville, FL (approved)Los Angeles, CA (proposed)Palm Desert, CA (proposed)Rhode Island (proposed)Note: Gainesville Regional Utilities, has approved the first U.S. cost-based FIT for solar PV.In May 2009, Vermont enacted the first statewide FIT policy based on the RE project cost. Santa Monica, CA (proposed) Long Island, NY (proposed)21Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryRecent PublicationsInnovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy LaboratoryInsights & Opportunities• Technology, Policy and Business Model Innovations will drive opportunity• System Solutions hold high promise. – IT Enabled: Smart Grid…– Geospatial Diversity– Interactions of Technologies– Cross Sector Opportunities: Transport & Power– Load Shifting & Storage

Insights and Opportunities: Technologies, Policies, and Markets for Clean Energy Solutions

University of Nevada, Las Vegas Repository

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Insights and Opportunities: Technologies, Policies, and Markets for Clean Energy Solutions

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