Abstract Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scearios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country. Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis; scenario planning; decision making under uncertainty Background and Context Our initial motivation for this paper was a concern that many quantitative decision analytic models do not adequately deal with the many uncertainties and risks that arise in long term strategic decision making contexts. We are particularly concerned with the use of multi-criteria value models and, to some extent, decision trees and influence diagrams, but the same difficulties occur in using other quantitative models: we would contend all other quantitative models. French [1995] has written on the different forms of uncertainty that may arise in decision modelling and analysis and this paper to som
