Crous-Duran, J.

Minunno, F.

Palma, J.H.N.

English

UTL Repository

Crous-Duran J. *a, Minnuno, F.b and Palma J.H.Na  jcrous@isa.ulisboa.pt  aForChange  -Forest Ecosystem Management under Global Change, Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal b Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland  Introduction Under the umbrella of the EU Project AGFORWARD (Agroforestry that will Advance Rural Development, 2014-2017), initial workshops with stakeholders identified a potential eucalyptus Agroforestry System (AF) not being practiced in Portugal.  Currently, Eucalyptus globulus Labill occupies about 700 000 ha mainly in monoculture plantations for pulp production and a mixed tree-crop-livestock combination could bring new practices and supply new services for forest industry and society.  The YieldSAFE model (wan der Welf, 2007) is a parameter-sparse model developed for agroforestry systems. Nevertheless, the model can also be used for tree or crop monocultures systems. As a first stage in the use of the model for agroforestry systems we tested 1) the response of the model against measured data of eucalyptus monocultures and, once we are dealing with a process based model,  2) the response of the model to future climate scenarios.  Discussion Although the calibration of the model is still at preliminary stages (more data can be used for calibration/validation), there are good indications that the model is trendily responding to observed data. There are exceptions. Some plots, especially in the validation dataset, are currently being identified as fertility experimental plots. A further refinement and increase number of the sites can improve these preliminary calibration and validation results. The main productivity output of the model (tree biomass) is already providing an interesting fitting, which is a strong work baseline to account for resource allocation in future application of the model in new agroforestry systems with this species. The mapping result, in one hand, is aligned with maps done with empirical models. However, important factors for this species such as altitude and frost days are not accounted in this map. These may change the tree distribution and increase mortality (reducing volume estimated). Nevertheless, 1) the current productivity trends are present and 2) the future spatial reduction in yields is aligned with literature (i.e. Santos & Miranda, 2006). Preliminary use of YieldSAFE model to assess Eucalyptus globulus productivity in Portugal under future climate Yield-SAFE model was used to project tree and crop yields according to light and water availability. Tree measured data  was  used in two independent datasets, each one containing 19 plots. One  was used for calibration  and the other for validation (Fig 1). Four variables were considered:  Diameter at breast height (DBH), height, total biomass, and total volume.  The soil information (texture and depth) was extracted  from the European Soil database v2  (2004).                       We acknowledge the support of the European Union through the AGFORWARD FP7 research project (contract 613520) and I&D Center of Altri for allowing us to use the data and for the technical field support.  Scan code to download poster Results – Calibration/Validation The Yield-SAFE model produced a reasonable fit for DBH and total biomass but lower fit when estimating  height and volume (Fig 2). References European Soil Database distribution v2, CD-ROM, EUR 19945 EN, 2004 Palma JHN, 2014. CliPick–Climate Change Web Picker. Bridging climate and                            biological modelling scientific communities, II European Agroforestry               Conference, Palma JHN & Chalmin (Eds), Cottbus, Germany, 233-236 pp       http://home.isa.utl.pt/~joaopalma/projects/agforward/clipick/ Santos FD, Miranda PMA, Alterações climáticas em Portugal :       cenários, impactos e medidas de adaptação : Projecto SIAM II,506 p van der Werf et al., 2007. Ecological Engineering, 29: 419-433. y = 0.747x + 1.6437 R² = 0.5875 024681012141618200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Predicted Observed  DBH (cm) y = 0.3998x + 10.416 R² = 0.3744 0510152025300 5 10 15 20 25 30Predicted Observed  Height (m) y = 0.6581x + 29.433 R² = 0.4886 0501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 300Predicted Observed  Total Biomass (ton ha-1) y = 0.635x + 42.446 R² = 0.4618 0501001502002503003504000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Predicted Observed  Total Volume (m3 ha-1) Figure 2: Observed vs Predicted plots for the calibration (A) and validation (B) y = 0.7527x + 3.5075 R² = 0.8457 051015200 5 10 15 20Predicted Observed  DBH (cm) y = 0.4312x + 10.906 R² = 0.6117 0510152025300 5 10 15 20 25 30Predicted Observed  Height (m) y = 0.9489x - 6.0626 R² = 0.8411 0501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 300Predicted Observed  Total Biomass (ton ha-1) y = 0.3077x + 38.359 R² = 0.4748 0501001502002503003504000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Predicted Observed  Total Volume (m3 ha-1) Current 2000 2030 2060 Materials and Methods We opted to use simulated climate due to the scarcity of daily  climate data. Climate was extracted from CliPick (Palma, 2014) that supply simulations  for a 25 km grid, based on the moderate climate change scenario  (A1B) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Four years were considered to initialize simulations:  1960 (current climate), 2000, 2030 and 2060. For mapping the results, YieldSAFE model was used to simulate a plantation of 1250 trees ha-1 (4x2) for 10 years on the same scale of the soil map (1:1 000 000), resulting in a grid of 1 km. For each point simulated, a distance weighted interpolation was made with the 3 nearest climate datasets. A B Figure 1: Location of datasets for calibration and validation Figure 3: A) Eucalyptus globulus stand volume at year 10 estimated by YieldSAFE for current and future climate; B) Yield reduction cause by future climate. Results – Simulations Maps of stand volume at year 10 were produced for comparing current and future climate (Fig 3): A B 

Preliminary use of YieldSAFE model to assess Eucalyptus globulus productivity in Portugal under future climate

Universidade Técnica de Lisboa

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Preliminary use of YieldSAFE model to assess Eucalyptus globulus productivity in Portugal under future climate

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