Estimation of Survival Function and Probability of Onset of Diabetic Nephropathy using Path Analysis and Analysis of Covariance

Abstract

Abstract:-The objective of this paper is to estimate the probability of onset of diabetic nephropathy (DN) arising out of type 2 diabetic patients. To achieve our goal, firstly we have analyzed the association of occurrence of renal complication with the available risk factors by applying path analysis viz., is an extension of multiple regression model that helps in better prediction, since it can model the impact of each factor on an outcome variable. The results of the path analysis showed that serum creatinine (SrCr), number of successes ((NOS), i.e. SrCr ≥ 1.4mg/dl) and age at onset of diabetes are the most appropriate predictors for estimating the progression of DN. Thus, using these significant predictors we have estimated the probability of onset of DN for two different levels of age at onset of diabetes diagnosis (Age at onset of diabetes ≤ 40 years and Age at onset of diabetes > 40 years) by applying ANCOVA with two covariates SrCr and NOS. The results of the analysis indicates that the probability of the onset of DN differ among the two levels of age at onset of diabetes. And SrCr and number of successes are the significant contributors for predicting probability