Københavns Universitet A Malthusian Model for all Seasons A Malthusian Model for all Seasons: A Theoretical Approach to Labour Input and Labour Surplus in Traditional Agriculture A Malthusian Model for all Seasons: A Theoretical Approach to Labour Input a

Abstract

Abstract: It has become popular to argue (e.g. Clark 2007) that all societies were Malthusian until about 1800. At the same time, the phenomenon of surplus labour is well-documented for historical (as well as modern) pre-industrial societies. This study discusses the paradox of surplus labour in a Malthusian economy. Inspired by the work of We introduce the concept of seasonality into a stylized Malthusian model, and endogenize the extent of agricultural labour input, which is then used to calculate labour surplus and the rate of labour productivity. We observe the effects of season-specific technological progress, and find that technological progress in the low-season increases labour surplus and labour productivity whilst, perhaps surprisingly, technological progress in the high-season, by relaxing the high-season bottleneck, leads to work intensification and a drop in labour surplus and labour productivity. JEL classification codes: J22, N13, O10 Keywords: Boserup, Labour Productivity, Labour Surplus, Land Productivity, Malthus, Seasonality * We gratefully acknowledge the feedback from seminar and conference participants at the University of Copenhagen, the European University Institute, the Seventh Conference of the European Economic History Society, and the 'Why (not) Europe' Summer School at University of Tartu. We are especially thankful to Steven Broadberry, Giovanni Federico, Joel Mokyr and Kevin O'Rourke for comments, suggestions and literacy recommendations. Contact: [email protected]