Presidential influence over the systemic agenda

Abstract

Abstract One of the most widely accepted sources of presidential power is agenda setting. Being able to affect the media's agenda on key issues-influencing the systemic agenda and "expanding the scope of conflict"-has enormous consequences for the president's ability to govern effectively. Yet the literature to date has not conclusively determined the extent to which presidents consistently set agendas, especially over the media, because it has not explicitly considered variation in agenda-setting influence by policy type. For these reasons, we test whether presidential public statements have increased the media's attention to three policy areas. Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, we demonstrate that presidents have some influence over the systemic agenda, at least in the short term, with policy type being an important predictor of presidential influence. Understanding when and why presidents may or may not be successful agenda setters is crucial to explaining the varying legislative impacts of presidential speech making. Agenda setting has long been viewed as a vital source of power in American politics. Whoever controls the agenda affects which issues are debated, how they are framed, and who may participate. Much work on agenda setting holds unequivocally that presidents have this power, and that they are uniquely situated to affect the national agenda. John Kingdon (1984, 25), in his seminal study on Washington agenda setting, maintained that "no other single actor in the political system has quite the capability of the president to set agendas." Baumgartner and Jones (1993, 241) surmised, "no single actor can focus attention as clearly, or change the motivations of such a great number of other actors, as the president." After all, these scholars assert that Congress, the public, and the news media regularly look to presidents for leadership on the nation's most pressing issues. Presidential influence over agenda setting arguably increases the president's ability to govern effectively. If the president dictates the issues that Congress debates each legislative session, he is more likely to succeed on his top legislative prioritie

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