Fiscal Fragility and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area

Abstract

Abstract We study the relative weight of macroeconomic (i.e., fiscal policy, banking exposure, growth perspectives, etc.) and financial (i.e., aggregate and idiosyncratic risk, and sovereign bond markets liquidity) conditions as determinants of movements of 10-years sovereign bond spreads (over the Bund benchmark) in the Eurozone from 2000 to 2009, relying on cross-country quarterly data panel analysis. We find that aggregate and idiosyncratic risk factors are fundamental drivers of sovereign spreads, both directly and interacting with structural conditions. With respect to the literature, we find a wider set of macroeconomic conditions -fiscal policy stance (i.e., level and maturity structure of outstanding debt, and fiscal balance), banking sector exposure (namely, level and structure of assets by borrowing sector), and short and medium-term growth perspectives -driving sovereign default risk. In line with the literature, we find strong evidence of regime switching in parameters' estimation

    Similar works