Developing a method of collecting purchase probability data in telephone interviews : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Business Studies in Marketing at Massey University

Purchase predictions is an important issue for both commercial and academic researchers. The Juster Scale is an eleven point purchase probability scale designed to collect purchase probability data in face-to-face interviews. The Verbal Purchase Probability scale is a variation of the Juster Scale designed specifically for use in telephone interviews. The main focus of this study was to investigate ways in which the accuracy of predictions obtained using the Verbal Purchase Probability scale. This was achieved by testing two procedures designed to improve predictions: using respondent recall of previous purchase behaviour prior as a guide to making predictions; and a double question procedure where respondents were first asked to make purchase predictions for a longer time period (eight weeks), then for the time period of interest (four weeks). It was found that the technique using respondent recall as a guide was not effective at improving predictions, asking the prediction questions over the two time periods was. Other findings included; that purchase level predictions could not be made with any less data than, the probability of purchasing any products, the number of product most likely to be bought and the probability of purchasing exactly that number without a significant reduction in the accuracy of the prediction. It was found that using respondent recall to test the accuracy of predictions resulted in significantly understated error. Accurate recall at the time of making a prediction lead to more accurate purchase level predictions being made, but not purchase rate predictions. "Non-users" had significantly larger errors in their purchase level predictions than "users", this lead to a new method of estimating purchase levels by assuming non-users have a zero purchase probability and thus the predicted purchase level is equal to the purchase level of users

Fears and realisations of employment insecurity

We investigate the validity of subjective data expectations of job loss and on the probability of re-employment consequent on job loss, by examining associations between expectations and realisations. We find that subjective expectations data reveal private information about subsequent job loss, the expectations data perform better with numerical descriptors than with ordinal verbal descriptors. On average, employees overestimate the chance of losing their job; while they underestimate the difficulty of finding another job as good as the currently-held one. We recommend that survey items on employment insecurity should be explicit about each risk investigation, and utilise a cardinal probability scale with discrete numerical descriptors

An idiographic approach to the fluctuation of appraisals and coping during a trapshooting competition

Events occurring during competition can impact athletes differently and influence their cognitive states and emotional states. Therefore, appraisal and coping processes are individual and can be understood better using an idiographic approach. The purpose of this study is two-fold: 1) to describe the nature of the fluctuation of emotional states and coping processes during the competition and 2) to propose an idiographic and ecologically valid method of study of these processes through the use of verbal protocols and sequential analysis. One master world-class elite (58 years old and 28 years of competitive experience) and one master 4th-category regional level trapshooter (59 years old and 30 of experience) participated in this study. Participants completed an affect grid after each shot during two competitions of the national trapshooting championship. Each competition was composed of 6 sets of 25 shots. After each set, participants provided verbal reports using a delayed verbal protocol procedure. This procedure consisted of identifying critical moments within the competition, and reporting thoughts and feelings immediately before and after each critical moment. Verbal reports were transcribed verbatim and coded according to Lazarus’ cognitive-motivational-relational theory of emotion. Units of information were submitted to event sequential analysis to determine the probability of occurrence of paired-events. The elite level athlete reported a stable pattern of pleasure and arousal levels, while the non-elite athlete reported greater fluctuation of emotional states. It was found great inter- and intra-individual variability depending on the context, but patterns of appraisal and coping were identified through sequential analysis

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: Some Portuguese Evidence

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (e.g. “probable”) they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission (CMVM). This analysis was made “in isolation”, that is, without considering a context. The findings show that these terms and expressions are differently perceived by the auditors. Thus the paper provides evidence that suggests that it is fair to review the use of verbal probability expressions in accounting standards, namely the IAS/IFRS

ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a level-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa)

Gesture and speech integration: an exploratory study of a man with aphasia

Background: In order to fully comprehend a speaker’s intention in everyday communication, we integrate information from multiple sources including gesture and speech. There are no published studies that have explored the impact of aphasia on iconic co-speech gesture and speech integration. Aims: To explore the impact of aphasia on co-speech gesture and speech integration in one participant with aphasia (SR) and 20 age-matched control participants. Methods & Procedures: SR and 20 control participants watched video vignettes of people producing 21 verb phrases in 3 different conditions, verbal only (V), gesture only (G) and verbal gesture combined (VG). Participants were required to select a corresponding picture from one of four alternatives: integration target, a verbal only match, a gesture only match, and an unrelated foil. The probability of choosing the integration target in the VG that goes beyond what is expected from the probabilities of choosing the integration target in V and G was referred to as multi-modal gain(MMG). Outcomes & Results: SR obtained a significantly lower multi-modal gain score than the control participants (p<0.05). Error analysis indicated that in speech and gesture integration tasks, SR relied on gesture in order to decode the message, whereas the control participants relied on speech in order to decode the message. Further analysis of the speech only and gesture only tasks indicated SR had intact gesture comprehension but impaired spoken word comprehension. Conclusions & Implications: The results confirm findings by Records (1994) which reported that impaired verbal comprehension leads to a greater reliance on gesture to decode messages. Moreover, multi-modal integration of information from speech and iconic gesture can be impaired in aphasia. The findings highlight the need for further exploration of the impact of aphasia on gesture and speech integration

How Much Will the Sea Level Rise? Outcome Selection and Subjective Probability in Climate Change Predictions

We tested whether people focus on extreme outcomes to predict climate change and assessed the gap between the frequency of the predicted outcome and its perceived probability while controlling for climate change beliefs. We also tested 2 cost-effective interventions to reduce the preference for extreme outcomes and the frequency–probability gap by manipulating the probabilistic format: numerical or dual-verbal-numerical. In 4 experiments, participants read a scenario featuring a distribution of sea level rises, selected a sea rise to complete a prediction (e.g., “It is ‘unlikely’ that the sea level will rise . . . inches”) and judged the likelihood of this sea rise occurring. Results showed that people have a preference for predicting extreme climate change outcomes in verbal predictions (59% in Experiments 1–4) and that this preference was not predicted by climate change beliefs. Results also showed an important gap between the predicted outcome frequency and participants’ perception of the probability that it would occur. The dual-format reduced the preference for extreme outcomes for low and medium probability predictions but not for high ones, and none of the formats consistently reduced the frequency–probability gap

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: the auditors Registered with the portuguese securities market commission

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS, this may have a negative impact on financial statements comparability