Interdependence in ASEAN: An Assessment of the ASEAN Preferential Trading Agreements (PTA)

This article examines whether the ASEAN Preferential Trading Arrangements have increased the level of interdependence among ASEAN countries in the area of trade. Specifically, whether such interdependence has brought about institutional and economic changes such as tariff reduction and nontariff barriers among ASEAN countries.tariff, trade sector, ASEAN, ASEAN tariffs

Is Trade in Asia Really Integrating?

Is intraregional trade in Asia really integrating? It is not easy to answer this ostensibly simple question. There are two ways to assess the level of trade integration: de facto integration and de jure integration. With respect to de facto integration (actual level of interdependence in terms of trade flows), the answer depends on which Asian countries are being considered and which indicator is being using to measure trade interdependence. This paper compares the trade interdependence of different sets of Asian countries using various indices. With respect to de jure integration (the signing of free trade agreements [FTAs]), the number of signed FTAs in Asia is growing but the relation between trade interdependence and the signing of FTAs has not been sufficiently studied. The second half of this paper addresses whether de jure trade integration is ultimately brought about by high-level or low-level de facto trade integration.FTAs; trade interdependence; scope of agreements

Stock Market Interdependence and Trade Relations: A Correlation Test for the U.S. and Its Trading Partners

Based on the well-established trade relations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, this paper examines the robustness of the trade relation hypothesis which, in some recent studies, argues that difference in trade relations among countries can significantly explain difference in the stock market interdependence. The generalized VDC analysis is employed to measure the stock market interdependence, and the correlation test with bootstrap procedure is applied to test the hypothesis. The results indicate that the hypothesis is hardly as a general rule.

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging Asia and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the “decoupling” of emerging Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post-crisis period, suggesting “recoupling”, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging Asia (and the People’s Republic of China [PRC]) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging Asia and industrial countries has become “bi-directional,” defying the traditional notion of the “North–South relationship” as one of “uni-directional" dependence.Regional integration; decoupling; macroeconomic interdependence; trade and financial market linkages; VAR

Interdependence of Income between China and ASEAN-5 Countries

This paper examines the interdependence of income between China and ASEAN-5 countries by resorting to the time series econometrics analysis from 1960 to 2000 of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Empirical results are found to support the strong interdependence of income between China and ASEAN-5 countries. With the increasing interest of economic integration around the globe especially the proposed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA), the interdependence and synchronization movements of income between member countries is an important characteristic for suitability toward the regional common currency goal.

Production interdependence and welfare

The international welfare effects of a country's monetary policy shocks have been controversial in the new open economy macro (i.e., NOEM) literature. While a unilateral monetary expansion increases the production efficiency in each country, it affects the terms of trade in favor of one country against another depending on the currencies of price setting. In this paper, we incorporate multiple stages of production and trade into a standard NEOM model to capture world production interdependence, and show that increased world production interdependence tends to magnify the e±ciency-improvement effect while dampening the terms-of-trade effect. As a consequence, a unilateral monetary expansion can be mutually beneficial regardless of in which currency prices are set. In this sense, international monetary policy transmission may not be a source of potential conflict in a world with production interdependence. JEL Classification: E32, F31, F41Local currency pricing, Monopolistic competition, Stages of processing, Welfare

Trade flows and the international business cycle

We investigate into the role of the trade channel as important determinant of a country's current account position and the degree of business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world by comparing the predictions of two types of DGE models. It is shown that the behavior of a country's external balance and the international transmission of shocks depends amongst other things on two factors: i) the magnitude of trade interdependence, ii) the degree of substitutability between importable and domestically-produced goods. Using time series data on bilateral trade flows, we estimate the magnitude of trade interdependence and the elasticity of substitution between importable and domestic goods for the G7 countries. Given these estimates, idiosyncratic supply shocks potentially induce changes in the current account and foreign output that vary in direction and magnitude across G7 countries. The relationship between the magnitude of foreign trade and the import substitutability with various correlation measures is examined empirically in a cross-sectional dimension. First Draft, July 2001. Final Draft, November 2001. Klassifikation: E32, F4

The EU, the US, and Trade Policy: Competitive Interdependence in the Management of Globalization

Competitive interdependence marked the European Union (EU) - United States (US) relationship as the GATT/ World Trade Organization (WTO) was strengthened and as each enlarged its territorial sphere of influence. The EU initially expanded its influence outside Europe by granting nonreciprocal preferences to the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) states while the US subsequently used the WTO to force the EU-ACP relationship into WTO-compliance. Adopting regional and bilateral strategies, the US negotiated NAFTA and Latin American and Asian free trade agreements. The US thereby expanded its sphere of influence. The EU responded by negotiating equivalent free trade agreements in both Latin America and Asia. As it expands its territorial sphere of influence, the EU may now be managing globalization by outstripping the US. The US-EU relationship thus is marked by both competition and interdependence

MEASUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTABILITY BETWEEN U.S. DOMESTIC CATFISH AND IMPORTED FISH

This study examines p-interdependence and quantifies q-substitutability between domestic catfish and different species of imported fish in the U.S. fish market. In doing so, this study uses cointegration analyses for p-interdependence and structural analyses for q-substitutability. Cointegration analysis identifies the long run price equilibria between U.S. domestic catfish and different species of imported fish. The structural analyses show a degree of q-substitutability.cointegration, structural analyses, fish, imports, p-interdependence, and q-substitutability, International Relations/Trade,

Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on military conflict. Our empirical analysis,based on a large panel data set of 290,040 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence and global trade openness significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the effect of trade openness varies depending on the geographical proximity of countries. The peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflicts. The analysis shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also multilateral trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.Trade; Globalization; Military conflict; Peace