The existence of species rests on a metastable equilibrium between inbreeding and outbreeding

Background: Speciation corresponds to the progressive establishment of reproductive barriers between groups of individuals derived from an ancestral stock. Since Darwin did not believe that reproductive barriers could be selected for, he proposed that most events of speciation would occur through a process of separation and divergence, and this point of view is still shared by most evolutionary biologists today. 

Results: I do, however, contend that, if so much speciation occurs, it must result from a process of natural selection, whereby it is advantageous for individuals to reproduce preferentially within a group and reduce their breeding with the rest of the population, leading to a model whereby new species arise not by populations splitting into separate branches, but by small inbreeding groups “budding” from an ancestral stock. This would be driven by several advantages of inbreeding, and mainly by advantageous recessive phenotypes, which could only be retained in the context of inbreeding. Reproductive barriers would thus not arise passively as a consequence of drift in isolated populations, but under the selective pressure of ancestral stocks. Most documented cases of speciation in natural populations appear to fit the model proposed, with more speciation occurring in populations with high inbreeding coefficients, many recessive characters identified as central to the phenomenon of speciation, with these recessive mutations expected to be surrounded by patterns of limited genomic diversity.

Conclusions: Whilst adaptive evolution would correspond to gains of function that would, most of the time, be dominant, the phenomenon of speciation would thus be driven by mutations resulting in the advantageous loss of certain functions since recessive mutations very often correspond to the inactivation of a gene. A very important further advantage of inbreeding is that it reduces the accumulation of recessive mutations in genomes. A consequence of the model proposed is that the existence of species would correspond to a metastable equilibrium between inbreeding and outbreeding, with excessive inbreeding promoting speciation, and excessive outbreeding resulting in irreversible accumulation of recessive mutations that could ultimately only lead to the extinction.
&#xa

The fossilized birth-death model for the analysis of stratigraphic range data under different speciation concepts

A birth-death-sampling model gives rise to phylogenetic trees with samples from the past and the present. Interpreting "birth" as branching speciation, "death" as extinction, and "sampling" as fossil preservation and recovery, this model -- also referred to as the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model -- gives rise to phylogenetic trees on extant and fossil samples. The model has been mathematically analyzed and successfully applied to a range of datasets on different taxonomic levels, such as penguins, plants, and insects. However, the current mathematical treatment of this model does not allow for a group of temporally distinct fossil specimens to be assigned to the same species. In this paper, we provide a general mathematical FBD modeling framework that explicitly takes "stratigraphic ranges" into account, with a stratigraphic range being defined as the lineage interval associated with a single species, ranging through time from the first to the last fossil appearance of the species. To assign a sequence of fossil samples in the phylogenetic tree to the same species, i.e., to specify a stratigraphic range, we need to define the mode of speciation. We provide expressions to account for three common speciation modes: budding (or asymmetric) speciation, bifurcating (or symmetric) speciation, and anagenetic speciation. Our equations allow for flexible joint Bayesian analysis of paleontological and neontological data. Furthermore, our framework is directly applicable to epidemiology, where a stratigraphic range is the observed duration of infection of a single patient, "birth" via budding is transmission, "death" is recovery, and "sampling" is sequencing the pathogen of a patient. Thus, we present a model that allows for incorporation of multiple observations through time from a single patient

Monte carlo simulations of parapatric speciation

Parapatric speciation is studied using an individual--based model with sexual reproduction. We combine the theory of mutation accumulation for biological ageing with an environmental selection pressure that varies according to the individuals geographical positions and phenotypic traits. Fluctuations and genetic diversity of large populations are crucial ingredients to model the features of evolutionary branching and are intrinsic properties of the model. Its implementation on a spatial lattice gives interesting insights into the population dynamics of speciation on a geographical landscape and the disruptive selection that leads to the divergence of phenotypes. Our results suggest that assortative mating is not an obligatory ingredient to obtain speciation in large populations at low gene flow.Comment: submitted to Phys.Rev.

Patterns of Speciation and Extinction and the Divine Valuing of Creation

The near-universal concern over the current rate of species extinction must be contextualized, given the occurrence ofprevious mass extinctions during the course of Earth\'s natural history. Current scientific knowledge regarding patterns of speciation and extinction present two challenges to the theologian: 1 ) how to understand God\'s relationship to these patterns; and 2) how to understand God\'s valuation of transient creatures in creation. After reviewing current theories regarding speciation and extinction, the implications for theology are addressed, particularly the need to account for extinction as an undeniable feature of cosmic history