Front Propagation and Clustering in the Stochastic Nonlocal Fisher Equation

The nonlocal Fisher equation is a diffusion-reaction equation with a nonlocal quadratic competition, which describes the reaction between distant individuals. This equation arises in evolutionary biological systems, where the arena for the dynamics is trait space, diffusion accounts for mutations and individuals with similar traits compete, resulting in partial niche overlap. It has been found that the (non-cutoff) deterministic system gives rise to a spatially inhomogeneous state for a certain class of interaction kernels, while the stochastic system produces an inhomogeneous state for small enough population densities. Here we study the problem of front propagation in this system, comparing the stochastic dynamics to the heuristic approximation of this system by a deterministic system where the linear growth term is cut off below some critical density. Of particular interest is the nontrivial pattern left behind the front. For large population density, or small cutoff, there is a constant velocity wave propagating from the populated region to the unpopulated region. As in the local Fisher equation, the spreading velocity is much lower than the Fisher velocity which is the spreading velocity for infinite population size. The stochastic simulations give approximately the same spreading velocity as the deterministic simulation with appropriate birth cutoff. When the population density is small enough, there is a different mechanism of population spreading. The population is concentrated on clusters which divide and separate. This mode of spreading has small spreading velocity, decaying exponentially with the range of the interaction kernel

Calibrated Weighting for Small Area Estimation

Calibrated weighting methods for estimation of survey population characteristics are widely used. At the same time, model-based prediction methods for estimation of small area or domain characteristics are becoming increasingly popular. This paper explores weighting methods based on the mixed models that underpin small area estimates to see whether they can deliver equivalent small area estimation performance when compared with standard prediction methods and superior population level estimation performance when compared with standard calibrated weighting methods. A simple MSE estimator for weighted small area estimation is also developed

Changing patterns of teenage pregnancy: population based study of small areas

OBJECTIVES: To measure the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rates of teenage pregnancy and the extent of local variation in pregnancy rates in Scotland, and to examine how both have changed over time. DESIGN: Population study using routine data from hospital records, aggregated for small areas. SUBJECTS: Female teenagers resident in Scotland who were treated for pregnancy in an NHS hospital in either 1981-5 (62 338 teenagers) or 1991-5 (48 514) and who were aged 13-19 at the time of conception. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pregnancy rates per 1000 in age group and the proportions of pregnancies resulting in a maternity (live birth or stillbirth) in teenagers aged 13-15, 16-17, and 18-19. RESULTS: From the 1980s to the 1990s pregnancy rates increased differentially according to levels of local deprivation, as measured by the Carstairs index. Among teenagers aged less than 18 the annual pregnancy rate increased in the most deprived areas (from 7.0 to 12.5 pregnancies per 1000 13-15 year olds and from 67.6 to 84.6 per 1000 16-17 year olds), but there was no change, on average, among teenagers in the most affluent areas (3.8 per 1000 13-15 year olds and 28.9 per 1000 16-17 year olds). Among 18-19 year olds the pregnancy rate decreased in the most affluent areas (from 60.0 to 46.3 per 1000) and increased in the most deprived areas (from 112.4 to 116.0 per 1000). The amount of local variation explained by deprivation more than doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s. The proportion of pregnancies resulting in a maternity was positively associated with level of deprivation, but the effect remained similar over time. CONCLUSION: From the 1980s to the 1990s the difference in rates of teenage pregnancy between more affluent and more deprived areas widened. This has implications for allocating resources to achieve government targets and points to important social processes behind the general increase in the number of teenage pregnancies in Scotland

Rural and Small Town Population is Growing in the 1990s

Rural and small town Canada continues to grow. Rural and small town growth rates vary widely among the provinces. Much of the growth within rural and small town areas is in the small towns. Sub-provincial data show wide regional differences within each province. The population in larger urban centres is growing faster. Thus, the share of Canada's population living in rural and small town areas has declined to 22 percent in 1996. Newfoundland is the only province with over 50 percent of its population living in rural and small town areas.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Population parameters of small pelagic fishes caught off Tawi-Tawi, Philippines

Growth and mortality parameters, exploitation rates and annual recruitment patterns were estimated from monthly length-frequency samples for Sardinella longiceps, S. fimbriata, S. Albella, Decapterus macrosoma, Dipterygonatus balteatus, Rastrelliger faughni and Encrasicolina heteroloba. These results provide the first sets of stock parameter estimates for these species off Tawi-Tawi, Philippines. The growth parameters derived were found comparable with previous estimates available for the same species from other localities. Recruitment was noted to be year-round and bimodal. Estimates of fishing mortality and exploitation rate were found to be presently above appropriate levels

Detecting population III galaxies with HST and JWST

A small fraction of the atomic-cooling halos assembling at z<15 may form out of minihalos that never experienced any prior star formation, and could in principle host small galaxies of chemically unenriched stars. Since the prospects of detecting isolated population III stars appear bleak even with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), these population III galaxies may offer one of the best probes of population III stars in the foreseeable future. By projecting the results from population III galaxy simulations through cluster magnification maps, we predict the fluxes and surface number densities of pop III galaxy galaxies as a function of their typical star formation efficiency. We argue that a small number of lensed population III galaxies in principle could turn up at z=7-10 in the ongoing Hubble Space Telescope survey CLASH, which covers a total of 25 low-redshift galaxy clusters.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the proceedings of First Stars I

The Expected Fitness Cost of a Mutation Fixation under the One-dimensional Fisher Model

This paper employs Fisher’s model of adaptation to understand the expected fitness effect of fixing a mutation in a natural population. Fisher’s model in one dimension admits a closed form solution for this expected fitness effect. A combination of different parameters, including the distribution of mutation lengths, population sizes, and the initial state that the population is in, are examined to see how they affect the expected fitness effect of state transitions. The results show that the expected fitness change due to the fixation of a mutation is always positive, regardless of the distributional shapes of mutation lengths, effective population sizes, and the initial state that the population is in. The further away the initial state of a population is from the optimal state, the slower the population returns to the optimal state. Effective population size (except when very small) has little effect on the expected fitness change due to mutation fixation. The always positive expected fitness change suggests that small populations may not necessarily be doomed due to the runaway process of fixation of deleterious mutations

Black Hole Spin-Orbit Misalignment in Galactic X-ray Binaries

In black hole X-ray binaries, a misalignment between the spin axis of the black hole and the orbital angular momentum can occur during the supernova explosion that forms the compact object. In this letter we present population synthesis models of Galactic black hole X-ray binaries, and study the probability density function of the misalignment angle, and its dependence on our model parameters. In our modeling, we also take into account the evolution of misalignment angle due to accretion of material onto the black hole during the X-ray binary phase. The major factor that sets the misalignment angle for X-ray binaries is the natal kick that the black hole may receive at its formation. However, large kicks tend to disrupt binaries, while small kicks allow the formation of XRBs and naturally select systems with small misalignment angles. Our calculations predict that the majority (>67%) of Galactic field BH XRBs have rather small (>10 degrees) misalignment angles, while some systems may reach misalignment angles as high as ~90 degrees and even higher. This results is robust among all population synthesis models. The assumption of small small misalignment angles is extensively used to observationally estimate black hole spin magnitudes, and for the first time we are able to confirm this assumption using detailed population synthesis calculations.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, submitted to ApJ

Environmental factors influence both abundance and genetic diversity in a widespread bird species.

Genetic diversity is one of the key evolutionary variables that correlate with population size, being of critical importance for population viability and the persistence of species. Genetic diversity can also have important ecological consequences within populations, and in turn, ecological factors may drive patterns of genetic diversity. However, the relationship between the genetic diversity of a population and how this interacts with ecological processes has so far only been investigated in a few studies. Here, we investigate the link between ecological factors, local population size, and allelic diversity, using a field study of a common bird species, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We studied sparrows outside the breeding season in a confined small valley dominated by dispersed farms and small-scale agriculture in southern France. Population surveys at 36 locations revealed that sparrows were more abundant in locations with high food availability. We then captured and genotyped 891 house sparrows at 10 microsatellite loci from a subset of these locations (N = 12). Population genetic analyses revealed weak genetic structure, where each locality represented a distinct substructure within the study area. We found that food availability was the main factor among others tested to influence the genetic structure between locations. These results suggest that ecological factors can have strong impacts on both population size per se and intrapopulation genetic variation even at a small scale. On a more general level, our data indicate that a patchy environment and low dispersal rate can result in fine-scale patterns of genetic diversity. Given the importance of genetic diversity for population viability, combining ecological and genetic data can help to identify factors limiting population size and determine the conservation potential of populations