Sustainable monetary policy and inflation expectations

The author shows that the short-term nominal interest rate can anchor private-sector expectations into low inflation more precisely, into the best equilibrium reputation can sustain. He introduces nominal asset markets in an infinite horizon version of the Barro-Gordon model. The author then analyzes the subset of sustainable policies compatible with any given asset price system at date t = 0. While there are usually many sustainable inflation paths associated with a given set of asset prices, the best sustainable inflation path is implemented if and only if the short-term nominal bond is priced at a certain discount rate. His results suggest that policy frameworks must also be evaluated on their ability to coordinate expectations.Inflation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Asset pricing

Nuclear and extended infrared emission in paired and isolated galaxies

The empirical connection between gravitational and collisional interactions among galaxies and enhanced activity has been well-documented. However, the physical mechanisms which are responsible for triggering the various forms of activity have not been determined. The author presents the preliminary results of a study of the nuclear and integrated infrared properties of galaxies chosen from the Catalog of Isolated Pairs of Galaxies in the Northern Hemisphere (Karachentsev 1972; hereafter CPG) and the Catalog of Isolated Galaxies (Karachentseva 1973; hereafter KI). Observations of these large, unbiased samples of paired and isolated galaxies are analyzed with the hope of identifying which aspects of galaxy encounters are most closely coupled to the presence of activity

Methodology for tidal turbine representation in ocean circulation model

The present method proposes the use and adaptation of ocean circulation models as an assessment tool framework for tidal current turbine (TCT) array layout optimization. By adapting both momentum and turbulence transport equations of an existing model, the present TCT representation method is proposed to extend the actuator disc concept to 3-D large-scale ocean circulation models. Through the reproduction of experimental flume tests and grid dependency tests, this method has shown its numerical coherence as well as its ability to simulate accurately both momentum and turbulent turbine-induced perturbations in both near and far wakes in a relatively short period of computation time. Consequently the present TCT representation method is a very promising basis for the development of a TCT array layout optimization tool

Equilibrium Selection Through Incomplete Information in Coordination Games: An Experimental Study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertainty about the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have been used in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problems of equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment, each subject receives a noisy signal about the true payoffs. This game (inspired by the “global” games of Carlsson and van Damme, Econometrica, 61, 989–1018, 1993) has a unique strategy profile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominated strategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcome coincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome of the underlying coordination game. In the baseline game, the behavior of the subjects converges to the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that this behavior can be explained by learning. To test this hypothesis, we use a different game with incomplete information, related to a complete information game where learning and prior experiments suggest a different behavior. Indeed, in the second treatment, the behavior did not converge to equilibrium within 50 periods in some of the sessions.We also run both games under complete information. The results are sufficiently similar between complete and incomplete information to suggest that risk-dominance is also an important part of the explanation.Publicad

Would Motor-Imagery based BCI user training benefit from more women experimenters?

Mental Imagery based Brain-Computer Interfaces (MI-BCI) are a mean to control digital technologies by performing MI tasks alone. Throughout MI-BCI use, human supervision (e.g., experimenter or caregiver) plays a central role. While providing emotional and social feedback, people present BCIs to users and ensure smooth users' progress with BCI use. Though, very little is known about the influence experimenters might have on the results obtained. Such influence is to be expected as social and emotional feedback were shown to influence MI-BCI performances. Furthermore, literature from different fields showed an experimenter effect, and specifically of their gender, on experimental outcome. We assessed the impact of the interaction between experi-menter and participant gender on MI-BCI performances and progress throughout a session. Our results revealed an interaction between participants gender, experimenter gender and progress over runs. It seems to suggest that women experimenters may positively influence partici-pants' progress compared to men experimenters

Asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves under case-control sampling

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve and the negative predictive value (NPV) curve are three measures of performance for a continuous diagnostic biomarker. The ROC, PPV and NPV curves are often estimated empirically to avoid assumptions about the distributional form of the biomarkers. Recently, there has been a push to incorporate group sequential methods into the design of diagnostic biomarker studies. A thorough understanding of the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves will provide more flexibility when designing group sequential diagnostic biomarker studies. In this paper, we derive asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves under case-control sampling using sequential empirical process theory. We show that the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves converge to the sum of independent Kiefer processes and show how these results can be used to derive asymptotic results for summaries of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS937 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org