Two-period linear mixed effects models to analyze clinical trials with run-in data when the primary outcome is continuous: Applications to Alzheimer\u27s disease.

Introduction: Study outcomes can be measured repeatedly based on the clinical trial protocol before randomization during what is known as the run-in period. However, it has not been established how best to incorporate run-in data into the primary analysis of the trial. Methods: We proposed two-period (run-in period and randomization period) linear mixed effects models to simultaneously model the run-in data and the postrandomization data. Results: Compared with the traditional models, the two-period linear mixed effects models can increase the power up to 15% and yield similar power for both unequal randomization and equal randomization. Discussion: Given that analysis of run-in data using the two-period linear mixed effects models allows more participants (unequal randomization) to be on the active treatment with similar power to that of the equal-randomization trials, it may reduce the dropout by assigning more participants to the active treatment and thus improve the efficiency of AD clinical trials

Sequential monitoring with conditional randomization tests

Sequential monitoring in clinical trials is often employed to allow for early stopping and other interim decisions, while maintaining the type I error rate. However, sequential monitoring is typically described only in the context of a population model. We describe a computational method to implement sequential monitoring in a randomization-based context. In particular, we discuss a new technique for the computation of approximate conditional tests following restricted randomization procedures and then apply this technique to approximate the joint distribution of sequentially computed conditional randomization tests. We also describe the computation of a randomization-based analog of the information fraction. We apply these techniques to a restricted randomization procedure, Efron's [Biometrika 58 (1971) 403--417] biased coin design. These techniques require derivation of certain conditional probabilities and conditional covariances of the randomization procedure. We employ combinatoric techniques to derive these for the biased coin design.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS941 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org