Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches

Motif Discovery through Predictive Modeling of Gene Regulation

We present MEDUSA, an integrative method for learning motif models of transcription factor binding sites by incorporating promoter sequence and gene expression data. We use a modern large-margin machine learning approach, based on boosting, to enable feature selection from the high-dimensional search space of candidate binding sequences while avoiding overfitting. At each iteration of the algorithm, MEDUSA builds a motif model whose presence in the promoter region of a gene, coupled with activity of a regulator in an experiment, is predictive of differential expression. In this way, we learn motifs that are functional and predictive of regulatory response rather than motifs that are simply overrepresented in promoter sequences. Moreover, MEDUSA produces a model of the transcriptional control logic that can predict the expression of any gene in the organism, given the sequence of the promoter region of the target gene and the expression state of a set of known or putative transcription factors and signaling molecules. Each motif model is either a $k$-length sequence, a dimer, or a PSSM that is built by agglomerative probabilistic clustering of sequences with similar boosting loss. By applying MEDUSA to a set of environmental stress response expression data in yeast, we learn motifs whose ability to predict differential expression of target genes outperforms motifs from the TRANSFAC dataset and from a previously published candidate set of PSSMs. We also show that MEDUSA retrieves many experimentally confirmed binding sites associated with environmental stress response from the literature.Comment: RECOMB 200

Predictive Analysis for Social Processes II: Predictability and Warning Analysis

This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. Part I identifies a class of social processes, called positive externality processes, which are both important and difficult to predict, and introduces a multi-scale, stochastic hybrid system modeling framework for these systems. In Part II of the paper we develop a systems theory-based, computationally tractable approach to predictive analysis for these systems. Among other capabilities, this analytic methodology enables assessment of process predictability, identification of measurables which have predictive power, discovery of reliable early indicators for events of interest, and robust, scalable prediction. The potential of the proposed approach is illustrated through case studies involving online markets, social movements, and protest behavior