Pest risk analysis for Bactrocera invadens : Guidelines on Pest Risk Analysis

Stripping related moisture damage has been recognized as one of the major pavement distresses since the early 1990s. The main objective of this study is to establish an effective test protocol to quantify moisture susceptibility of asphalt pavements. To this end, selective test methods (Texas Boiling test, Tensile Strength Ratio, Retained Stability, and Hamburg Wheel Test), and procedures based on surface chemistries and molecular-level mechanistic properties have been investigated in this study. Firstly, a comprehensive list of literature related to moisture damage in asphalts was reviewed. Based on the literature review, a detailed project plan and test matrix were developed. Binder samples originated from two different crude sources were collected. The moisture resistance related tests such as static contact angle measurements and Texas Boiling tests were conducted. Besides, asphalt binders’ nanomechanical properties using an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and surface chemistries using a static contact were evaluated in the laboratory. Based on limited test data and analysis, it is concluded that there does not exist any single test method that all agencies are comfortable and equipped to follow in their daily work as each technique has some merits and demerits. However, the Texas Boiling test is found to be the simplest method that requires minimal time and resources. On the other hand, surface chemistry and atomic force microscope-based techniques are becoming popular among researchers and pavement professionals. Findings of this study are expected to help ARDOT in selecting an appropriate moisture resistance test method that is simple, reliable, and easy to implement in their routine work

Interface between pest risk science and policy : the EPPO perspective

The European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO) is an intergovernmental organization responsible for cooperation in plant protection in the European and Mediterranean region. It provides global distribution maps of pests, and intends to identify the areas at risk from new and emerging pests, in the framework of Pest Risk Analyses. EPPO has developed a decision-support scheme for Pest Risk Analysis (DSS) and a computer program (CAPRA) to assist pest risk analysts in running the decisionsupport scheme. Dedicated rating guidance and a Climatic Suitability Risk Mapping Decision-Support Scheme have recently been developed to guide assessors in identifying the potential area of establishment of a pest. All these tools have been developed taking into account both pest risk science available and needs of policy makers. The use of these tools and of mapping software are undertaken within the framework of EPPO Pest Risk Analyses, as illustrated through the examples of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera) and Apriona germari (Coleoptera)

Matching methods to produce maps for pest risk analysis to resources

Decision support systems (DSSs) for pest risk mapping are invaluable for guiding pest risk analysts seeking to add maps to pest risk analyses (PRAs). Maps can help identify the area of potential establishment, the area at highest risk and the endangered area for alien plant pests. However, the production of detailed pest risk maps may require considerable time and resources and it is important to match the methods employed to the priority, time and detail required. In this paper, we apply PRATIQUE DSSs to Phytophthora austrocedrae, a pathogen of the Cupressaceae, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, the pine processionary moth, Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing Drosophila, and Thaumatotibia leucotreta, the false codling moth. We demonstrate that complex pest risk maps are not always a high priority and suggest that simple methods may be used to determine the geographic variation in relative risks posed by invasive alien species within an area of concern

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments : adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments : adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada

ECONOMIC RISK EFFICIENCY OF BOLL WEEVIL ERADICATION

The purpose of this study was to determine the economic risk efficiency of implementing a boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis [Boheman]) eradication (BWE) program in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) producing regions of the Mississippi Delta. Alternative producer pest management practices and program cost sharing were incorporated into a biophysical cotton simulation model. Participation in a BWE program along with strict adherence to Cooperative Extension Service pest management guidelines proved to be the risk efficient practice.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Measuring the Consistency of Phytosanitary Measures

The paper presents a model for quantifying quarantine-related phytosanitary measures by combining the two basic components of pest risk assessment, probability of establishment and economic effects, into a single management framework, Iso-Risk. The model provides a systematic and objective basis for defining and measuring acceptable risk and for justifying quarantine actions relative to acceptable risk. This can then be used to measure consistency of phytosanitary measures. The Iso-Risk framework is applied using a database of USDA phytosanitary risk assessments. The results show that the USDA risk assessment system produces assessments that are not consistent across a range of intermediate values for consequence or likelihood of occurrence.Iso-Risk, phytosanitary risk assessment, pest risk assessment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Land Economics/Use,

Re-examining economic options for import risk assessments

The economic impacts of altering quarantine policies are divided into two main areas: trade evaluations, utilising a partial equilibrium approach to determine the benefits of market liberalisation; or pest management economics, used to determine the on-ground impacts of introduced species. This paper rationalises why these approaches need to be brought together within the policy framework of import risk assessments to provide a greater understanding of the benefits and risks from market liberalisation.Biosecurity, pest management, import risk analysis, uncertainty

ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS UNDER UNCERTAINTY WITH APPLICATION TO CORN NEMATODE MANAGEMENT

An economic threshold of agricultural pest management is derived. Results provide a method for researchers to use in making improved pest control recommendations to farmers without farm level decision-making. An empirical illustration for lesion nematode management in irrigated corn is given and directions for further research are indicated.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,