Isolation in the construction of natural experiments

A natural experiment is a type of observational study in which treatment assignment, though not randomized by the investigator, is plausibly close to random. A process that assigns treatments in a highly nonrandom, inequitable manner may, in rare and brief moments, assign aspects of treatments at random or nearly so. Isolating those moments and aspects may extract a natural experiment from a setting in which treatment assignment is otherwise quite biased, far from random. Isolation is a tool that focuses on those rare, brief instances, extracting a small natural experiment from otherwise useless data. We discuss the theory behind isolation and illustrate its use in a reanalysis of a well-known study of the effects of fertility on workforce participation. Whether a woman becomes pregnant at a certain moment in her life and whether she brings that pregnancy to term may reflect her aspirations for family, education and career, the degree of control she exerts over her fertility, and the quality of her relationship with the father; moreover, these aspirations and relationships are unlikely to be recorded with precision in surveys and censuses, and they may confound studies of workforce participation. However, given that a women is pregnant and will bring the pregnancy to term, whether she will have twins or a single child is, to a large extent, simply luck. Given that a woman is pregnant at a certain moment, the differential comparison of two types of pregnancies on workforce participation, twins or a single child, may be close to randomized, not biased by unmeasured aspirations. In this comparison, we find in our case study that mothers of twins had more children but only slightly reduced workforce participation, approximately 5% less time at work for an additional child.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS770 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Studying the Child Obesity Epidemic with Natural Experiments

We utilize clinical records of successive visits by children to pediatric clinics in Indianapolis to estimate the effects on their body mass of environmental changes near their homes. We compare results for fixed-residence children with those for cross-sectional data. Our environmental factors are fast food restaurants, supermarkets, parks, trails, and violent crimes, and 13 types of recreational amenities derived from the interpretation of annual aerial photographs. We looked for responses to these factors changing within buffers of 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, and 1 mile. We found that cross-sectional estimates are quite different from the Fixed Effects estimates of the impacts of amenities locating near a child. In cross section nearby fast food restaurants were associated with higher BMI and supermarkets with lower BMI. These results were reversed in the FE estimates. The recreational amenities that appear to lower children's BMI were fitness areas, kickball diamonds, and volleyball courts. We estimated that locating these amenities near their homes could reduce the weight of an overweight eight-year old boy by 3 to 6 pounds

Colonialism and Modern Income -- Islands as Natural Experiments

Using a new database of islands throughout the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans we examine whether colonial origins affect modern economic outcomes. We argue that the nature of discovery and colonization of islands provides random variation in the length and type of colonial experience. We instrument for length of colonization using wind direction and wind speed. Wind patterns which mattered a great deal during the age of sail do not have a direct effect on GDP today, but do affect GDP via their historical impact on colonization. The number of years spent as a European colony is strongly positively related to the island's GDP per capita and negatively related to infant mortality. This basic relationship is also found to hold for a standard dataset of developing countries. We test whether this link is directly related to democratic institutions, trade, and the identity of the colonizing nation. While there is substantial variation in the history of democratic institutions across the islands, such variation does not predict income. Islands with significant export products during the colonial period are wealthier today, but this does not diminish the importance of colonial tenure. The timing of the colonial experience seems to matter. Time spent as a colony after 1700 is more beneficial to modern income than years before 1700, consistent with a change in the nature of colonial relationships over time.

Natural SUSY: LHC and Dark Matter direct detection experiments interplay

Natural SUSY scenarios with a low value of the $\mu$ parameter, are characterised by a higgsino-like dark matter candidate, and a compressed spectrum for the lightest higgsinos. We explore the prospects for probing this scenario at the 13 TeV stage of the LHC via monojet searches, with various integrated luminosity options, and demonstrate how these results are affect by different assumptions on the achievable level of control on the experimental systematic uncertainties. The complementarity between collider and direct detection experiments (present and future) is also highlighted.Comment: Proceeding for the 18th International Conference From the Planck Scale to the Electroweak Scale (Ioannina, Greece, 25-29 May 2015

Currency Changeovers as Natural Experiments

euro; currency changeover; menu costs

When Sheep Shop: Measuring Herding Effects in Product Ratings with Natural Experiments

As online shopping becomes ever more prevalent, customers rely increasingly on product rating websites for making purchase decisions. The reliability of online ratings, however, is potentially compromised by the so-called herding effect: when rating a product, customers may be biased to follow other customers' previous ratings of the same product. This is problematic because it skews long-term customer perception through haphazard early ratings. The study of herding poses methodological challenges. In particular, observational studies are impeded by the lack of counterfactuals: simply correlating early with subsequent ratings is insufficient because we cannot know what the subsequent ratings would have looked like had the first ratings been different. The methodology introduced here exploits a setting that comes close to an experiment, although it is purely observational---a natural experiment. Our key methodological device consists in studying the same product on two separate rating sites, focusing on products that received a high first rating on one site, and a low first rating on the other. This largely controls for confounds such as a product's inherent quality, advertising, and producer identity, and lets us isolate the effect of the first rating on subsequent ratings. In a case study, we focus on beers as products and jointly study two beer rating sites, but our method applies to any pair of sites across which products can be matched. We find clear evidence of herding in beer ratings. For instance, if a beer receives a very high first rating, its second rating is on average half a standard deviation higher, compared to a situation where the identical beer receives a very low first rating. Moreover, herding effects tend to last a long time and are noticeable even after 20 or more ratings. Our results have important implications for the design of better rating systems.Comment: Submitted at WWW2018 - April 2018 (10 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables); Added Acknowledgement

Can Mg isotopes be used to trace cyanobacteria-mediated magnesium carbonate precipitation in alkaline lakes?

The fractionation of Mg isotopes was determined during the cyanobacterial mediated precipitation of hydrous magnesium carbonate precipitation in both natural environments and in the laboratory. Natural samples were obtained from Lake Salda (SE Turkey), one of the few modern environments on the Earth's surface where hydrous Mg-carbonates are the dominant precipitating minerals. This precipitation was associated with cyanobacterial stromatolites which were abundant in this aquatic ecosystem. Mg isotope analyses were performed on samples of incoming streams, groundwaters, lake waters, stromatolites, and hydromagnesite-rich sediments. Laboratory Mg carbonate precipitation experiments were conducted in the presence of purified Synechococcus sp cyanobacteria that were isolated from the lake water and stromatolites. The hydrous magnesium carbonates nesquehonite (MgCO3·3H2O) and dypingite (Mg5(CO3)4(OH)25(H2O)) were precipitated in these batch reactor experiments from aqueous solutions containing either synthetic NaHCO3/MgCl2 mixtures or natural Lake Salda water, in the presence and absence of live photosynthesizing Synechococcus sp. Bulk precipitation rates were not to affected by the presence of bacteria when air was bubbled through the system. In the stirred non-bubbled reactors, conditions similar to natural settings, bacterial photosynthesis provoked nesquehonite precipitation, whilst no precipitation occurred in bacteria-free systems in the absence of air bubbling, despite the fluids achieving a similar or higher degree of supersaturation. The extent of Mg isotope fractionation (?26Mgsolid-solution) between the mineral and solution in the abiotic experiments was found to be identical, within uncertainty, to that measured in cyanobacteria-bearing experiments, and ranges from ?1.4 to ?0.7 ‰. This similarity refutes the use of Mg isotopes to validate microbial mediated precipitation of hydrous Mg carbonate

The Weak Reality that Makes Quantum Phenomena more Natural: Novel Insights and Experiments

While quantum reality can be probed through measurements, the Two-State-Vector formalism (TSVF) reveals a subtler reality prevailing between measurements. Under special pre- and post-selections, odd physical values emerge. This unusual picture calls for a deeper study. Instead of the common, wave-based picture of quantum mechanics, we suggest a new, particle-based perspective: Each particle possesses a definite location throughout its evolution, while some of its physical variables (characterized by deterministic operators, some of which obey nonlocal equations of motion) are carried by "mirage particles" accounting for its unique behavior. Within the time-interval between pre- and post-selection, the particle gives rise to a horde of such mirage particles, of which some can be negative. What appears to be "no-particle," known to give rise to Interaction-Free Measurement, is in fact a self-canceling pair of positive and negative mirage particles, which can be momentarily split and cancel out again. Feasible experiments can give empirical evidence for these fleeting phenomena. In this respect, the Heisenberg ontology is shown to be conceptually advantageous compared to the Schr\"odinger picture. We review several recent advances, discuss their foundational significance and point out possible directions for future research.Comment: An updated version was accepted to Entrop