Motor Vehicle Use and Travel Behaviour in Germany: Determinants of Car Mileage

In contrast to other countries where official odometer readings are collected when cars are being inspected or whenever there is a change in the registration data, no such information is available in Germany. The published annual figures on mileage of German vehicles result from model calculations, based on different data sources. The last two large surveys on car use were carried out in 1993 and 2002. These data are analyzed to find determinants of car mileage traveled and to check if there was a significant change of average mileage within 10 years. The method used to find determinants of car mileage is a log-linear analysis of variance. In general, average annual mileage for a German passenger car was 13,500 km in 2002, about 5 % less than in 1993 (14,200 km per car). When both privately and business owned cars are included in the models, only car-specific characteristics can be used as explanatory variables. In these models there is a high effect of the survey year on the car mileage even if other variables - as car size, car age, and type of engine - are controlled for. However, if we consider private cars only, additional variables of individual users can be included in the models. In addition to engine type, age of car, horsepower, the age and gender of the driver are central variables explaining car mileage. The dummy variable for the year is significant as well, but its effect on average mileage is lower, although, e.g., fuel prices did rise by 50 % between 1993 and 2002. Obviously the demographic changes in motorization are dominant, while an effect of fuel price increase is not evident - apart from the trend towards diesel cars. These observations confirm research results, stating that individual preference for car use is a high-level inelastic demand.Travel behavior, car mileage, car use

How reliable are self-report measures of mileage, violations and crashes?

The use of self-reported driver mileage, violations and crashes is very popular in traffic safety research, but their validity has been questioned. One way of testing validity is with an analysis of test–retest reliability. Three mechanisms might influence reliability in self report; actual changes in the variable over time, stable systematic reporting bias, and random error. Four samples of drivers who had responded twice to an online questionnaire asking them to report their mileage, violations and crashes were used and correlations between self reports for this data were calculated. The results for crashes were compared to expected correlations, calculated from the error introduced by the non-overlapping periods and the variable means. Reliability was fairly low, and controlling for mileage in the violations and crashes calculations did not strengthen the associations. The correlation between self reports of crashes in different time periods was found to be much larger than expected in one case, indicating a report bias, while the other correlation agreed with the predicted value. The correlations for overlapping time periods were much smaller than expected. These results indicate that drivers’ self reports about their mileage, violations and crashes are very unreliable, but also that several different mechanisms are operating. It is uncertain exactly under what circumstances different types of self report bias is operating. Traffic safety researchers should treat the use of self-reported mileage, violations and crashes with extreme caution and preferably investigate these variables with the use of objective data

The Intersection of Urban Form and Mileage Fees: Findings from the Oregon Road User Fee Pilot Program, Research Report 10-04

This report analyzes data from the 2006-2007 Oregon Road User Fee Pilot program to assess if and how urban form variables correlate with travel behavior changes that participants made in response to the mileage-based fee program. It finds that charging a noticeably higher fee for driving in congested conditions can successfully motivate households to reduce their VMT in those times and places where congestion is most a problem. Households in both traditional (mixed use, dense, transit-accessible) and suburban (single-use, low density) neighborhoods will likely reduce their peak-hour and overall travel under a charging scheme that charges a high-rate for peak-hour travel, though households in the traditional neighborhoods will do so more. It also finds that a mileage fee program that charges a high rate during the peak hour is likely to strengthen the underlying influence of urban form on travel behavior. In other words, land use probably will matter more to transportation planning if the nation shifts to a new paradigm of mileage-based financing and pricing system. For transportation policy-makers, this raises another layer of consideration when designing the optimal rate structure to achieve policy goals—either reduced VMT and congestion or sustained funding sources. For urban planners, this offers a wonderful opportunity to move towards a sustainable built environment through revised and compatible land use regulation under the context of a mileage-based fee. The research also reveals that program design could significantly affect a household’s response to a mileage-based fee program. Particularly in Portland, the establishment of an endowment account for participants actually increased household VMT when a flat-rate fee was charged, the opposite to policy-makers’ expectation. One possible explanation is that paying the mileage-based fees once a month, instead of paying the gas tax at each visit to the pump, may have encouraged households to drive more due to the reduced gas price at the pump

What Do Americans Think About Federal Transportation Tax Options? Results From Year 2 of a National Survey, Research Report 10-12

This report summarizes the results of a national random-digit-dial public opinion poll that asked 1,516 respondents if they would support various tax options for raising federal transportation revenues. The 11 specific tax options tested were variations on raising the federal gas tax rate, creating a new mileage tax, and creating a new federal sales tax. In addition, the survey collected standard socio-demographic data, some minimal travel behavior data, and attitudinal data about how respondents view the quality of their local transportation system and their priorities for government spending on transportation in their state. All of this information is used to assess support levels for the tax options among different population subgroups. The survey results show that a majority of Americans would support higher taxes for transportation—under certain conditions. For example, a gas tax increase of 10¢ per gallon to improve road maintenance was supported by 62% of respondents, whereas support levels dropped to just 24% if the revenues were to be used more generally to maintain and improve the transportation system. Other variants on a gas tax that received at least 50% support were increases of 10¢ per gallon with the revenues dedicated either to projects reducing accidents and improving safety or projects to “add more modern, technologically advanced systems.” For tax options where the revenues were to be spent for undefined transportation purposes, support levels varied considerably by what kind of tax would be imposed, with a sales tax much more popular than either a gas tax increase or a new mileage tax. A central goal of the survey was to compare public support for two alternative versions of a new mileage tax and eight versions of a gas tax increase. All variations on the two taxes increased support over that for the base case of each (a flat-rate mileage tax of 1¢ per mile and a 10¢ gas tax increase proposed without any additional detail). For example, varying the mileage tax by the vehicle’s pollution level increased support by 14 percentage points. For the gas tax, most notably, dedicating the tax proceeds to maintaining streets, roads, and highways increased support by 38 percentage points

Mileage of Motor Vehicles in 2004 Higher Than Ever Before

2003 saw a slight decline in the mileage of vehicle kilometers driven annually by all German road passenger and freight vehicles. This development did not continue in 2004; instead the mileage, at 697 billion vehicle kilometers, was higher than ever before, despite the fact that fuel prices continued to rise. Where freight vehicles are concerned, the number of vehicles on the road hardly changed as compared to 2003; the volume of goods to be transported only rose marginally. Since, however, transport distances increased, the mileage of German freight and semitrailer trucks was 1.3% higher in 2004 as compared to the previous year. The mileage of passenger cars registered in Germany even increased by 2.3% to 591 billion vehicle kilometers. The decline in 2003 was clearly not a shift in the trend, but rather one of the short-term adjustment reactions by consumers, as has often occurred in the past. Average consumption of motor vehicles decreased only marginally in the past year; total consumption of fuel in the traffic sector increased by 1.6%. The amount of the climate-relevant CO2 gas emitted even rose by 1.8%, since the increase of consumption was larger for diesel fuel with higher CO2 exhaust per liter than gasoline.

What Do Americans Think About Federal Transportation Tax Options? Results From a National Survey MTI Report 09-18

This report summarizes the results of a national random-digit-dial public opinion poll that asked 1,545 respondents if they would support various tax options for raising federal transportation revenues. The eight specific tax options tested were variations on raising the federal gas tax rate, creating a new mileage tax, and creating a new national sales tax. In addition, the survey collected standard socio-demographic data and some travel behavior data and asked a few attitudinal questions related to the quality of the transportation system and respondents´ priorities for government spending on transportation. These questions were used to assess support levels for the tax options among different population subgroups. None of the tax options achieved majority support, but three did fairly well, with support levels around 40%. These were a 0.5¢ sales tax (43% support), a 10¢ gas tax increase with revenue to be dedicated to projects that would reduce the transportation system´s impact on global warming (42% support), and a 10¢ gas tax increase spread over five years (39% support). The report also compares public support for alternative versions of the mileage and gas taxes. The base cases tested against alternatives were a flat-rate mileage tax of 1¢ per mile and a 10¢ gas tax with no additional information given about the tax. All variants of these base cases increased support levels, in most cases significantly. Varying the mileage tax by the vehicle´s pollution level increased support by 12 percentage points. For the gas tax, all four alternatives to the base case received higher support. Most notably, spreading the gas tax increase over five years increased support by 16 percentage points, and linking the increase to global warming reduction increased support by a full 19 percentage points

How Should Heavy-Duty Trucks Be Taxed?

This paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating optimal taxes on the fuel use and mileage of heavy-duty trucks, accounting for external costs from congestion, accidents, pavement damage, noise, energy security, and local and global pollution. The analysis allows for endogenous fuel economy, increased auto travel (and externalities) in response to reduced truck congestion, and it distinguishes driving by truck type and region. We estimate the optimal (second-best) diesel fuel tax is $1.12 per gallon, and implementing it increases welfare by$1.34 billion per annum. However, optimizing over both fuel and mileage taxes, and differentiating mileage taxes by vehicle type and region, yields progressively higher welfare gains. The most efficient tax structure involves a diesel fuel tax of 69 cents per gallon and charges on trucks that vary between 7 and 20 cents per mile; implementing this tax structure yields welfare gains of $2.06 billion.truck tax, diesel tax, external costs, welfare gains

Comparing Alternative Policies to Reduce Traffic Accidents

This paper derives and implements formulas for the welfare effects of differentiated and uniform mileage taxes, gasoline taxes, and per mile insurance premiums, for reducing the external costs of passenger vehicle accidents. The model distinguishes three driver groups and five vehicle groups, and we obtain estimates of external accident costs per mile for each group from crash data. The (average) external accident cost is estimated at 2.2-6.6 cents per mile. Accidents costs differ substantially across drivers of different ages, but only moderately across different vehicles groups. Annual welfare gains from a mileage tax differentiated across drivers and vehicles according to marginal external costs are $9.4 billion in the benchmark case. The uniform mileage tax and per-mile insurance reform can achieve 76% and 65% of this welfare gain, respectively, while the gasoline tax can achieve only 28% of the welfare gain. Unlike other policies, the gasoline tax induces costly improvements in average fleet fuel economy that have little effect on reducing external costs.traffic accidents; external costs; pricing policies; insurance reform