Reintroducing San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica) to vacant or restored lands: identifying optimal source populations and candidate foxes

Endangered San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica) currently persist as a meta- population in central California consisting of 3 core and several satellite populations. Many of these populations are small and the meta-population is highly fragmented, which increases extinction risk. Translocation is a potential strategy for increasing the number of populations. Various factors would need to be considered when selecting source populations and candidate foxes for translocation. One such factor is behavioral attributes of individual foxes, as reflected by level of boldness, particularly in response to novel resources and potential threats. We compared behavioral attributes between and within populations of kit foxes in urban and non-urban habitats, and also examined the relationship of these attributes to survival and fitness. The overall goal of this project was to identify optimal source populations and individual foxes for relocation efforts, and in particular to determine whether urban foxes could be used in such efforts

Dynamics of interacting diseases

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place on a single level (be it a single population, a meta-population system or a network of contacts). In particular, interdependent contagion phenomena can only be addressed if we go beyond the scheme one pathogen-one network. In this paper, we propose a framework that allows describing the spreading dynamics of two concurrent diseases. Specifically, we characterize analytically the epidemic thresholds of the two diseases for different scenarios and also compute the temporal evolution characterizing the unfolding dynamics. Results show that there are regions of the parameter space in which the onset of a disease's outbreak is conditioned to the prevalence levels of the other disease. Moreover, we show, for the SIS scheme, that under certain circumstances, finite and not vanishing epidemic thresholds are found even at the thermodynamic limit for scale-free networks. For the SIR scenario, the phenomenology is richer and additional interdependencies show up. We also find that the secondary thresholds for the SIS and SIR models are different, which results directly from the interaction between both diseases. Our work thus solve an important problem and pave the way towards a more comprehensive description of the dynamics of interacting diseases.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, 3 appendices. Final version accepted for publication in Physical Review

A Comparison of Spatial-based Targeted Disease Containment Strategies using Mobile Phone Data

Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are critical for enhancing containment processes during epidemics. Using a real-world dataset from Ivory Coast, this work presents an attempt to unveil the socio-geographical heterogeneity of disease transmission dynamics. By employing a spatially explicit meta-population epidemic model derived from mobile phone Call Detail Records (CDRs), we investigate how the differences in mobility patterns may affect the course of a realistic infectious disease outbreak. We consider different existing measures of the spatial dimension of human mobility and interactions, and we analyse their relevance in identifying the highest risk sub-population of individuals, as the best candidates for isolation countermeasures. The approaches presented in this paper provide further evidence that mobile phone data can be effectively exploited to facilitate our understanding of individuals' spatial behaviour and its relationship with the risk of infectious diseases' contagion. In particular, we show that CDRs-based indicators of individuals' spatial activities and interactions hold promise for gaining insight of contagion heterogeneity and thus for developing containment strategies to support decision-making during country-level pandemics

Discovery of a second locality for the narrow endemic Anthemis ismelia (Asteraceae) in NW Sicily

A new population of Anthemis ismelia (Asteraceae) has been discovered on Mt Pecoraro (Cinisi, NW Sicily), a limestone headland at about 14 km from Mt Gallo (Palermo), the locus classicus et unicus of this species described in 1884. Taxonomic framework, distribution update, habitat characterisation, ecology and phytosociological framework are provided, as well as meta-population numerical estimates and risk status assessment

Invasive species management in two-patch environments: Agricultural damage control in the raccoon (procyon lotor) problem, Hokkaido, Japan

We develop discrete-time models for analyzing the long run equilibrium outcomes on invasive species management in two-patch environments with migration. In particular, the focus is upon a situation where removal operations for invasive species are implemented only in one patch (controlled patch). The new features of the model are that (i) asymmetry in density dependent migration is considered, which may originate from impact of harvesting as well as heterogeneous habitat conditions, and (ii) the effect of density-dependent catchability is well-taken to account for the nature that required effort level to remove one individual may rise as the existing population decreases. The model is applied for agricultural damage control in the raccoon problem that has occurred in Hokkaido, Japan. Numerical illustration demonstrates that the long run equilibrium outcomes highly depend on the degree of asymmetry in migration as well as the sensitivity of catchability in response to a change in the population size of invasive species. Furthermore, we characterize the conditions under which the economically optimal effort levels are qualitatively affected by the above two factors and aiming at local extermination of invasive species in controlled patch is justified.catchability, meta-population, local extermination, removal effort, density dependent migration