Performance of Gujarat economy: an analysis of growth and instability

Since the State’s inception, the growth process in Gujarat and its regions has experienced ups and downs in the economic activities. Not much attention is attributed to short term fluctuations in the growth of economic activities as long as the long term growth depicts an upward trend. However, if the short term fluctuations become frequent and adversely affect the long term rate of growth, there is a need for a closer look. Tackling instability acquires importance for improving the lot of small and marginal farmers, who are more affected by spells of bad years. Instability in agricultural production raises risk in farm production, affecting farmers’ incomes and decisions for investments to adopt new technologies. This paper is devoted to looking at the long term macro-economic growth pattern of Gujarat since its inception. It highlights the problem of instability in economic growth – both for the economy and in particular for agricultural sector. The comparative picture of Gujarat in the national economy is presented, together with a discussion on changing structure of Gujarat’s economy from early 1960s to 2008-09. The analysis of instability is also carried out at the sectoral level. Analysis of instability is attempted in terms of structure of the economy. Income is the variable selected for analysis as it is a comprehensive measure of economic activity. For agriculture, the paper opts ‘output’ for the sectoral analysis.Agricultural growth, Instability, Sectoral growth, Gujarat

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relation between political instability and economic growth, but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship and that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this relationship into causal and negative.economic growth, political instability

A Theory of Minsky Super-Cycles and Financial Crises

This paper argues that Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis weaves together a medium term Keynesian approach to the business cycles in the spirit of Samuelson (1936) and Hicks (1950) with long cycle thinking of economists such as Schumpeter (1939) and Kondratieff. Post Keynesians have devoted considerable attention to the medium term dimension of Minsky's thinking. The current paper concentrates on the long swing dimension and introduces the idea of "Minsky super-cycles." It is the supercycle that ultimately permits financial crisis. Whereas financially driven business cycles occur every decade, financial crises occur over longer durations reflecting the longer phase of the super-cycle.Minsky, business cycles, financial instability hypothesis

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relation between political instability and economic growth, but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship and that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this relationship into causal and negative.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39710/3/wp326.pd

An ultrastable silicon cavity in a continuously operating closed-cycle cryostat at 4 K

We report on a laser locked to a silicon cavity operating continuously at 4 K with $1 \times 10^{-16}$ instability and a median linewidth of 17 mHz at 1542 nm. This is a ten-fold improvement in short-term instability, and a $10^4$ improvement in linewidth, over previous sub-10 K systems. Operating at low temperatures reduces the thermal noise floor, and thus is advantageous toward reaching an instability of $10^{-18}$, a long-sought goal of the optical clock community. The performance of this system demonstrates the technical readiness for the development of the next generation of ultrastable lasers that operate with ultranarrow linewidth and long-term stability without user intervention.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Rossby Wave Instability and Long-Term Evolution of Dead Zones in Protoplanetary Discs

The physical mechanism of angular momentum transport in poorly ionized regions of protoplanetary discs, the dead zones (DZs), is not understood. The presence of a DZ naturally leads to conditions susceptible to the Rossby wave instability (RWI), which produces vortices and spiral density waves that may revive the DZ and be responsible for observed large-scale disc structures. We present a series of two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the role of the RWI in DZs, including its impact on the long-term evolution of the disc and its morphology. The nonlinear RWI can generate Reynolds stresses (effective $\alpha$ parameter) as large as $0.01 - 0.05$ in the DZ, helping to sustain quasi-steady accretion throughout the disc. It also produces novel disc morphologies, including azimuthal asymmetries with $m = 1, 2$, and atypical vortex shapes. The angular momentum transport strength and morphology are most sensitive to two parameters: the radial extent of the DZ and the disc viscosity. The largest Reynolds stresses are produced when the radial extent of the DZ is less than its distance to the central star. Such narrow DZs lead to a single vortex or two coherent antipodal vortices in the quasi-steady state. The edges of wider DZs evolve separately, resulting in two independent vortices and reduced angular momentum transport efficiency. In either case, we find that, because of the Reynolds stresses generated by the nonlinear RWI, gravitational instability is unlikely to play a role in angular momentum transport across the DZ, unless the accretion rate is sufficiently high.Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures, submitted to MNRA

On the potential of foreign aid to protect democracy against instability from trade

In this paper, we examine the effects of a major source of instability, namely terms of trade instability on the quality of democracy, and we investigate whether foreign aid can dampen them. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms of trade instability on democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 71 developing countries over the period 1980-2003 provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms of trade instability affects democracy through income instability.democracy;foreign aid;terms of trade instability

Stockmarket comovements revisited

We revisit the issue of comovements of emerging and developed stockmarkets, and provide a simultaneous treatment of data for the eighties and nineties. We show that while emerging markets experience greater instability in the long term than their developed counterparts, there is room for short-term strategies to take advantage of profit opportunities in the emerging markets, especially in India.