Transport Impacts on Land Use: Towards A Practical Understanding for Urban Policy Making – Introduction and Research Plan.

INTRODUCTION This working paper forms a general introduction to an EPSRC CASE research project, presenting the objectives of the research, the rationale behind the study, a summary of some of the results obtained so far, and a plan for the remainder of the research work. The project is due for completion in November 1996. In other words, the project is examining: 1. The current understanding of the nature of the influence that transport has upon activity patterns and land use. Specifically, this is making use of empirical studies of transport impacts on land use, plus behavioural studies of the factors in location choice. 2. Whether this relationship can be adequately represented in a predictive context. This consists of two elements. How the relationship of transport on land use can be studied and 'formalised', and secondly, the ability to use this relationship for estimation of land use response to transport impacts. Use will be made of published modelling studies, plus some original modelling work, using a model constructed for this research. 3. The benefits of predicting transport impacts upon land use to planners involved in strategic land use and transport planning. This is the main objective of the research, and addresses why transport impacts on land use appear to have a minor role in structure planning, why model representations are seldom used, and given a model's predictions, what use will be made of the model results. Initial results from the first round of interviews are given in this paper. There are several themes that underpin this research: The nature of the 'transport on land use' relationship. How far it can he formalised, what we know about it, and how it is best to study it. Strategic planning processes in the UK, how the planning system handles the transport on land use relationship, under what circumstances the relationship is important, and the role of model predictions in the planning process. Whether the remit of 'planning' should examine transport impacts on land use, plus anticipation of the impacts of local government reorganisation. The issue of whether predictive modellmg in this context is an appropriate tool beyond the scope of academic research

How to include on-farm biodiversity in LCA on food?

Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of food and agriculture generally include potential effects on global warming, eutrophication, ecotoxocity and acidification some of which again affect biodiversity. However, LCA most often does not include specific indicators of the product’s or agricultural system’s impact (negative or positive) on biodiversity. Using LCA methodology on agricultural products makes it highly relevant to assess the impacts of land use. Some LCA’s include a simple category of land use. This is sometimes interpreted as “nature occupation”. However, if this is the only impact category addressing land use related biodiversity, the LCA cannot distinguish between different forms of agricultural systems, which may differ in their biodiversity impact (e.g. organic versus conventional products). Biologists as well as policy makers consider some agricultural land use, such as grazing semi-natural grasslands, as beneficial for biodiversity preservation. Thus, land use in food production systems can have both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity compared to leaving the land untouched by humans. Simple, operational indicators to account for the different impacts on biodiversity in food production systems could take the point of departure in the most important factors affecting biodiversity (easy obtainable pressure indicators) instead of estimating e.g. species diversity directly

Land Use Change Impacts of Biofuels: Near-VAR Evidence from the US

The present paper studies the land use change impacts of fuels and biofuels. We test the theoretical hypothesis, which says that changes in fuel prices cause changes in land use both directly and indirectly and, because of price inter-dependencies, biofuels reinforce the land use change impacts. Our data consists of yearly observations extending from 1950 to 2007 for the US, to which we apply time-series analytical mechanisms of five major traded agricultural commodities, the area of cultivated agricultural land and crude oil price. The empirical findings confirm that markets for crude oil and cultivated agricultural land are interdependent: an increase in oil price by 1 dollar/barrel increases land use between 54 and 68 thousand hectares. We also find that the rise of bioenergy sector accelerates land use change in the US.Near-VAR, energy, bioenergy, prices, land use, biofuel support policies.

Optimising carbon storage by land-management

As the UK’s largest non-government land-owner, the National Trust is committed to reducing its impact on climate change, recognising the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC), and its need for preservation. To establish if land-management could be optimised to increase carbon storage, ‘The Wallington Carbon Footprint Project’ was implemented. This study aimed to measure the Wallington Estate’s carbon stock, establish what controls SOC, identify carbon under-saturated soils, and make land-management change to increase SOC. To achieve these objectives a soil sampling campaign and land-use survey were undertaken at Wallington, with further sampling at a verification site in Cambridgeshire. Land-use intervention trials measuring carbon fluxes and SOC change were combined with computer modelling and questionnaires, to assess the impacts of land-use and management change on SOC. A land carbon stock of 845 Kt (60 Kt within biomass, and 785 Kt within soils) was estimated for Wallington, with the greatest control on SOC identified as grassland landmanagement. Other controls on SOC were: land-use, soil series, altitude, soil pH and landuse history, indicating that these should be used in all estimates of SOC distribution and stock. A possible link between phosphate fertilisation and SOC accumulation under grassland was identified; however this was not confirmed in a year long field trial. Incorporation of charcoal into soils was identified as a method of carbon sequestration, with a simultaneous reduction in nitrate loss from soil. Surface application to grasslands revealed no detrimental effects on soils, grassland productivity or water quality. Further trials investigated the impacts of arable conversion to short rotation coppice willow, and of peatland afforestation, both indentifying losses of SOC following the land-use change. Measurement of biomass carbon gains, full life cycle assessment of the each landuse, and the impacts of varying types of biochar are required before firm conclusions regarding land-use change and carbon sequestration can be made

Agriculture, Population, Land and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – The Role of Irrigation

Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water.Irrigation, Food supply, Integrated assessment, Water use intensity, Agricultural adaptation, Land scarcity, Partial equilibrium model, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Impacts of Promoting Perennial Crops in the French Agriculture

This paper is devoted to a quantitative analysis of the introduction of perennial crop in a short-term supply model. The analysis provides assessment of impacts regarding land use and N-input demand. We show that a variation in yield or the subsidy amount of miscanthus leads to a significant change in land use and N-input.lignocellulosic perennial crop, bio-energy, mathematical linear programming, land use, N-input demand, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

STRATEGIES TO INCREASE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND REDUCE LAND DEGRADATION: EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organizations, crop choices, land management, and labor use, and their implications for agricultural production and land degradation; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. The results generally support the Boserupian model of population-induced agricultural intensification, but do not support the "more people-less erosion" hypothesis, with population pressure found to contribute to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Agricultural technical assistance programs have location-specific impacts on agricultural production and land degradation, contributing to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, NGO programs focusing on agriculture and environment are helping to reduce erosion, but have mixed impacts on production. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production, though road access appears to contribute to land degradation in the highlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. We do not find evidence of a poverty-land degradation trap, while poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have crop production. These findings suggest that development of factor markets can improve agricultural efficiency. Several other factors that contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on land degradation, include specialized crop production, livestock and nonfarm income strategies, and irrigation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few "win-win" opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.Agricultural productivity, land degradation, agricultural development strategies, Uganda, farm size-productivity, Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis,

Biofuels : markets, targets and impacts

This paper reviews recent developments in biofuel markets and their economic, social and environmental impacts. Several countries have introduced mandates and targets for biofuel expansion. Production, international trade and investment have increased sharply in the past few years. However, several existing studies have blamed biofuels as one of the key factors behind the 2007-2008 global food crisis, although the magnitudes of impacts in these studies vary widely depending on the underlying assumptions and structure of the models. Existing studies also have huge disparitiesin the magnitude of long-term impacts of biofuels on food prices and supply; studies that model only the agricultural sector show higher impacts, whereas studies that model the entire economy show relatively lower impacts. In terms of climate change mitigation impacts, there exists a consensus that current biofuels lead to greenhouse gas mitigation only when greenhouse gas emissions related to land-use change are not counted. If conversion of carbon rich forest land to crop land is not avoided, the resulting greenhouse gas release would mean that biofuels would not reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions until several years had passed. Overall, results from most of the existing literature do not favor diversion of food for large-scale production of biofuels, although regulated production of biofuels in countries with surplus land and a strong biofuel industry are not ruled out. Developments in second generation biofuels offer some hope, yet they still compete with food supply through land use and are currently constrained by a number of technical and economic barriers.Energy Production and Transportation,Renewable Energy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Food&Beverage Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies