Global Liquidity Trap: A Simple Analytical Investigation

How should monetary policy cooperation be designed when more than one country simultaneously faces zero lower bounds on nominal interest rates? To answer this question, we examine monetary policy cooperation with both optimal discretion and commitment policies in a two- country model. We reach the following conclusions. Under discretion, monetary policy cooperation is characterized by the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES), a key parameter measuring international spillovers, and no history dependency. On the other hand, under commitment, monetary policy features history dependence with international spillover effects.Optimal Monetary Policy Cooperation, Zero Lower Bound

Health as a Principal Determinant of Economic Growth

For a long time economists have tended to ignore health as a relevant factor of production and important determinant of economic growth. The widely observed positive relationship between health expenditures and economic growth was considered the result of a strong positive income effect. However, gradually more and more economists have come to recognise that the relationship between health and economic growth is not only demand driven, but that health is also an important determinant of economic growth. The latter has mainly been recognised on the basis of empirical cross-country studies, starting for developing economies (see Strauss and Thomas, 1998, for an overview) and later also covering Western economies (Knowles and Owen, 1995; Barghava cs., 2001; McDonald and Roberts, 2002; Webber, 2002). However, until this day only few attempts have been made to present a coherent account of the causal links between health and economic growth....Economics ;

Population Aging and Fiscal Policy in Europe and the United States

In this paper, we compare the total size of intertemporal public liabilities (IPLs) of several European countries and the United States. We utilize the machinery of generational accounting in order to calculate the composition of the countries IPLs, that is the sum of the explicit and implicit liabilities embedded in the respective fiscal policies. The findings suggest that present fiscal policies of all countries with the exception of Ireland have positive intertemporal liabilities and, hence, are unsustainable over the long-term. The study also confirms the claim made by advocates of generational accounting that explicit debt is a poor indicator of long-term fiscal sustainability. Among all EMU participants, those with the highest implicit liabilities report the lowest explicit debt. However, countries with the smallest or negative implicit liabilities have rather high explicit debt levels in the base year of the calculations reported here - 1995.

Does Source of Income Affect Risk and Intertemporal Choices?

Publisher PD

(WP 2013-07) Terms of Trade Shocks and Private Savings in the Developing Countries

Economic agents in the developing countries are subject to tight credit constraints, which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic GMM model and data from 45 developing countries confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the developing countries. The transitory component in the terms of trade have a larger positive impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks is found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be relatively small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants and country groupings

Generational Accounting - Quo Vadis?

This paper focuses on the problems involved in developing cross-country comparisons of the intergenerational stance of fiscal policy. Of course, these comparisons are nowadays based on the method of generational accounting and in particular most of them rely on comparing the total size of intertemporal public liabilities (IPLs). I first utilize the machinery of generational accounting in order to calculate the composition of the countries` IPLs, that is the sum of explicit and implicit liabilities embedded in the respective fiscal policies for several European countries and the United States. The findings suggest that the ranking in a cross-country comparison is very sensitive to a) the legal settings concerning social transfer adjustment over time, b) the degree to which unreliable or time-inconsistent reforms are taken into account, c) the respective countries` business cycle status in the base-year. The second aim of this paper is to outline recent and future applications of generational accounting.

The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption, particularly if intertemporal labor supply is very elastic. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, gives rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises. The non-linear model is simulated to study the quantitative effects of non-infinitesimal demographic shocks.

Cultural Neuroeconomics of Intertemporal Choice

According to theories of cultural neuroscience, Westerners and Easterners may have distinct styles of cognition (e.g., different allocation of attention). Previous research has shown that Westerners and Easterners tend to utilize analytical and holistic cognitive styles, respectively. On the other hand, little is known regarding the cultural differences in neuroeconomic behavior. For instance, economic decisions may be affected by cultural differences in neurocomputational processing underlying attention; however, this area of neuroeconomics has been largely understudied. In the present paper, we attempt to bridge this gap by considering the links between the theory of cultural neuroscience and neuroeconomic theory\ud of the role of attention in intertemporal choice. We predict that (i) Westerners are more impulsive and inconsistent in intertemporal choice in comparison to Easterners, and (ii) Westerners more steeply discount delayed monetary losses than Easterners. We examine these predictions by utilizing a novel temporal discounting model based on Tsallis' statistics (i.e. a q-exponential model). Our preliminary analysis of temporal discounting of gains and losses by Americans and Japanese confirmed the predictions from the cultural neuroeconomic theory. Future study directions, employing computational modeling via neural networks, are briefly outlined and discussed

Household saving in developing countries : first cross-country evidence

This study uses time-series of household data from eleven developing countries to test several hypotheses about saving behavior. Besides just widening the scope of information being used to test the hypotheses, the data set in this study has the advantage of a consistent definition across countries. With these data the authors test how household saving in developing countries responds to the level of per capita disposable income, the rate of growth of disposable income and its deviation from trend, real liquid wealth at the start of the period, the real interest rate, the inflation rate, foreign saving, government transfers to households, and some demographic variables. The results show that income and wealth variables affect saving strongly and in ways consistent with standard theories. Inflation and the interest rate do not show clear effects on saving, which is also consistent with their theoretical ambiguity. Foreign saving and monetary wealth have strong negative effects on household saving, indicating the importance of liquidity constraints in developing countries.Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Conditions and Volatility

Political Institutions, Policymaking, and Economic Policy in Latin America

This paper surveys selected themes in the political economy of policymaking in Latin America, with an emphasis on recent research focusing on actual decision and implementation processes, and on the political institutions and state and social actors involved in those processes. In particular, the paper addresses how political rules work for or against intertemporal cooperation among political actors. The document shows that the extent to which polities obtain the key policy features that seem to determine development depends on the workings of political institutions, which define how the policymaking game is played, on the characteristics of the arenas of interaction, which define where the policymaking game is played, and on certain characteristics of key socioeconomic groups, which define who interacts with professionalpoliticians in pursuing different policy preferences.Political institutions, Public policies, Economic policy, Government capabilities, Development, Latin America